HOORAY! HOORAY! At long last and long overdue, somebody from the University has produced a highly intelligent analysis of the country's financial predicament. It is also, of necessity, an extremely depressing one. I refer to the article by Norman Girvan in The Gleaner of Saturday May 1st.

I think it desirable, however, to offer a few comments upon it.

Norman Girvan begins by putting his finger on the most painful spot. He deals, among other things, with the huge cost of our debt servicing which he correctly says will be 10 times the spending on capital programmes and is increasing. The country will have very little to spend on maintaining its public services or on helping the poor. He also makes the point that current high interest rates will render growth in our economy impossible.

Yet, having said that, he goes on later to make a rather odd observation. He writes, "there is always the possibility of a return to the IMF". Considering the very high interest rates that we pay on both local and foreign debts, I should have thought that a return to the IMF is a very obvious necessity. If we could substitute our present high interest-rate loans for low-interest IMF loans at between 3 and 5 per cent it would give us a breathing space and the money to carry out many or all of the excellent suggestions made by Norman Girvan. I cannot understand why Norman Girvan writes with obvious distaste. "IMF conditions are likely to include a major devaluation, severe cuts in public expenditure and a fire-sale of FINSAC assets". These seem exactly what we need to a greater or lesser extent. He then adds, even more strangely, that they would spell the demise of the current PNP administration. I would have thought that this would be a consequence much to be desired.

However, I hope everybody will read Norman Girvan's splendid contribution.

There is one personal matter concerning our financial crisis which saddens me. It is quite obvious that the days of Omar Davies as Minister of Finance are numbered. I rather suspect that his poor performance has been mostly due to the Prime Minister's preference for political advantage rather than for good housekeeping. In spite of his apparent failure, I have for long had considerable admiration for Omar Davies. I hated to see him lose his usual ebullience as he declared his mea culpa in the House. I think that he has the great distinction of being one of our few completely honest politicians. To be a completely honest politician in Jamaica is to be a rare bird indeed. It is said that when he retires from politics he will leave us for Harvard. I think that somehow he should be preserved and put on permanent exhibition in the Institute of Jamaica.

A New Administration

I know, of course, that the following procedure would be constitutionally impossible. But, nevertheless, let me dream. What about a new ruling group consisting of Douglas Orane, Peter Moses, Norman Girvan, Audley Shaw, and my old friend 'Butch' Stewart, and we might for good measure add Richard Coe to sell their policies by instalments if necessary. There's only one trouble with this happy dream. They might all catch fight.

End Piece

The suggestion that I am about to make will be greeted by howls of derision and will almost certainly not be followed. But I am going to make it all the same.

If the false pride of the Prime Minister refuses to call in the IMF, we should repudiate our foreign debts which, in any case, we are unable to pay. Of course, everyone will point out that if we do that no foreign country will lend us any money. This will be an excellent thing for it would force our stupid politicians into arranging that we live within our means. Year after year, at those public auction sales which we call General Election, our politicians in reckless pursuit of power, promise us goodies which the country can't afford and which involves the constant borrowing of money. It is this indebtedness that is the root of our present troubles. It is high time that we learned to live within our means.