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Squeezing the pips out of the economy

Alex

AS I slipped into a lazy mid-morning sleep on the beach in Ochi last Sunday I was shocked to see the ad by United Estates that said PricewaterhouseCoopers had been put in charge of selling the company.

I took a double take. The entire 5,422 acres business is up for sale, lock, stock and crop.

The quality and scale of the business is hard to imagine unless you've walked those lush Linstead and Bog Walk fields.

The McConnell family, which owns the operation, has built a powerful local citrus based brand in "Tru Juice" and an established concentrate export business.

The family is trying to sell its citrus concentrate and juice-manufacturing plant, which is modern and just eight years old. There is the 12-year old export packing house, plus a fleet of farm vehicles and a maintenance garage, tens of workers and senior management houses and the sprawling acres of Bog Walk farmland.

When old money has the pips squeezed out of its oranges, the shock waves are felt throughout the community and indeed the investment fraternity overseas.

My first reaction was, it's a clear message to the Government and those Industrial Dispute Tribunal (IDT) "geriatrics" - not my word but Senator Peter McConnell's.

You see, the entire 12-man IDT found against the company in a wage dispute with the 1,200 or so workers' union. We should not forget that even the Jamaica Employers Federation reps voted against big business.

The company obviously feels the IDT has found a way to bring in an across the board wage increase through the back door in the form of a meal worth about $120 a day.

If the juice business is like most other farming operations here, cash flow could be tight right now after the droughts of the past couple of years. And if the temporary and permanent staff rack up about 400,000 work days in the year that is an extra $50 million United Estates will have to pay out.

I don't doubt that the unions have a strong case and that management in many arenas have left themselves open to attacks.

But big business is as much about staff relationships as customer service as it is about the bottom line.

Having spoken to some of the family, I think they are actually sellers if the price is half decent, which makes a depressing statement about where we are.

It does not matter how you view the family or its holdings, the fact that the best orange farm in the Caribbean is up for sale is not a good sign of things to come.

This week has been a particularly depressing one. Buffeted by the United Estates news I began to canvass opinion on how far along we are in our "transition" to a vibrant, growing and sustainable economy.

I did not find one businessman out of the 13 I spoke to, many outside of the capital, that said he was looking at expanding his current business. Several said they were also reviewing their options, others said they were in for the long haul come what may, as they had already invested their life in building operations.

Crime and corruption has spooked almost everyone.

Several leading businessman have appeared to have one foot out the door but are now actively looking to consolidate holdings. Even Government party supporters are depressed about the road ahead.

One senior adviser said a government Minister has already told his colleagues that he is preparing to leave. My adviser knew that because they had been applying for the same jobs overseas.

Another top banker said he is canvassing for work in Canada, which appears to becoming the bolt hole of choice.

Do not misunderstand me. I am not for moment saying that money isn't flowing right across the nation.

The Benz and Bimmer crew are being replaced by a more gregarious customised Lexus set, sporting a neat line in gold accessories.

I have from time to time written about the impact of the grey economy, usually using a more technical analysis. But it is becoming harder to explain the obvious signs of wealth.

Poverty and greed attract strange bedfellows. The recent case of a Norbrook shooting is a good example. The resident in question is said to have paid out more than $100 million on real estate recently and become a benefactor to more than one local businessman.

The source of the funds are now being questioned, after the fact, not before the transactions though.

There is clearly a growing feeling that the emperor is running around nude but none of the subjects will tell him.

The more you hear from the Cabinet, the less convinced you are that change is coming. More to the point, the more I see from the numbers, the more I know it's not.

It appears that our economic benchmark has become the precarious position we were in two years ago in the midst of the financial crisis. "It's better than a few years ago" is almost a Ministry of Finance mantra these days.

Ministers must be called to account for the lack of growth in the economy.

No amount of explanation can hide our poor fundamentals. When FINSAC comes on to the Budget next April, we will have another $73.6 billion of domestic debt to finance on top of the $185 billion we already have.

By April 2002, we shall see if the economy is thriving or not. But experience, common sense and the numbers point to another collapse in confidence and more importantly a continued drain of the wealth creation capacity of the country.

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