US crisis deepens, where?

Stephen Vasciannie

LAST FRIDAY, amidst the excitement and speculation of the tight American Presidential election, the Weekend Observer offered us the dramatic headline: "US Crisis Deepens". This ejaculation, one supposes, was meant to capture the uncertainty surrounding the ballot recount in Florida and related matters; but, surely, it came too early.

As of last Friday, there was no US crisis, and there was no deepening of this "crisis": the headline was probably an exercise in unsophisticated hyperbole, or perhaps, the creation of an overactive imagination, but ultimately it was quite misleading. Mark you, there are mitigating factors which may provide some degree of solace to the Weekend Observer.

First, if the ballot recount and the uncertainty continues say ­ into the Christmas season ­ there may be a crisis, and so, on a substantial stretch of one's imagination, the Weekend Observer's premature position may eventually come to fruition.And, secondly, bearing in mind the Weekend Observer's strong track record in reporting foreign affairs, it may be that their editors and headline writers were distracted last week. Remember, you know, that Enoch Karl Blythe has been on the warpath against them. The non-smoking, non-cursing, non-lying-without- confessing Minister, has cornered them with a lawsuit about a cartoon: this domestic matter with the Minister could possibly have driven theWeekend Observer to the premature ejaculation concerning a non-existent US crisis.

But, one should not take the Weekend Observer's headline too lightly, because it does demonstrate some aspects of the problem of analysis in Jamaica. Last week, as many of us tried to follow the events in the United States, one question was whether, and to what extent, the American electoral system could be transferred to Jamaica.

This question has lingered not only because the National Democratic Movementhas advocated greater reliance on a constitutional system that borrows significant elements from the American order, but also because others (including, significantly, Danny Melville of the PNP) have advanced the view that systemic changes in the political order are necessary for socio-economic advancement in Jamaica.Against this background, the events in the American elections could assume significance for us, well beyond the simple question of whether Bush has beaten Gore, and vice-versa. For, if we perceive that the American electoral system is 'in crisis', then there is but a short step from this to the view that the American constitutional order, in an unreformed state, may not be readily transferable.

Clearly, we cannot say whether such considerations influenced the WeekendObserver last Friday ­ and, indeed, if Enoch-Karl-the-Good would allow me a slight wager ­ I would bet that the Observer's headline writer didn't really think the matter through in any detail.The implications, however, are there to be considered. So, in the first place, it is important to emphasise that the Bush/Gore recount in Florida is a sign of the robust character of the American democratic process, not a symbol of crisis. In an extraordinarily close race, it is perfectly natural for the contender who appears to have fallen short to demand a recount and, as one would expect in a fair electoral system, this recount has been granted.

Indeed, under Florida law, once the gap between the contenders is smaller than one-half of one per cent of the voters, this recount is mandatory: the recount, and the consequent delay, are therefore natural components of a system at work, not signs of crisis.But then, you may say, what about this business of the electoral college? This question arises because, possibly, the candidate who wins the popular vote count across the entire United States could nonetheless lose the electoral race if he fails to take a majority of the electoral college votes. The last time this happened was in 1888, when Grover Cleveland won the popular vote, but failed to prevail against Benjamin Harrison, because the latter capturedmore electoral college votes.

Some are quick to indicate that this possibility represents a defect in the American system, and, indeed, it might be. The electoral college system, as presently structured, is an attempt to give weight to the fact that, in a federal system, the President is elected by the various States of the Union. So, in each State, a first-past-the-post system is adopted: if you win Florida, you obtain all the electoral college votes from Florida, even though your opponent may have captured 40-odd per cent of the popular support there.If the possibility that the popular vote winner may not win with the electoral college voters is generally accepted as a flaw, then, obviously, it could be changed. Constitutional reformBut again, nothing in this points to a crisis. Constitutional scholars have long noted the theoretical possibility of a recurrence of the 1888 result and, more importantly, the system provides a clear answer ­ electoral college rules, OK. Incidentally, the risk of the popular vote winner failing to take home the bacon is inherent in all first-past-the- post systems (including Jamaica, at present).

Finally, in considering whether the American system is transferable to theJamaican context, we need to be clear about the items for transfer. In the discourse on constitutional reform in Jamaica, supporters of the Presidential system take the view that it is the real separation of powers, as between the executive, legislature and judiciary, that we may wish to adopt in Jamaica. Several implications follow from this, including a weakening of the powers of the executive, greater independence of the legislature and the need for co-operation between the executive and the independent legislature with respect to matters of political importance.

But, the debate on whether the Presidential system should prevail over our present arrangements based on the Westminster system is quite a different discussion from present speculations about the American electoral system. Obviously, it would be quite possible to adopt separation of powers, Presidential voting and a fixed election date, without the arcana of the electoral college. Obviously, too, it would be quite possible (and desirable) to make adjustments to any constitutional model we adopt, in order to reflect Jamaican objectives.So then, there is no crisis in the US. The media is having a field day with speculation designed, at least in part, to cover the error of calling the Florida result too early; there are problems with voters who failed to follow ballot instructions; and the candidates are jockeying for advantageous positions after running uninspiring campaigns.

But beyond that, American government continues apace. Enoch Karl Blythe continues to defend his saintliness while others snicker about him, and Danny Melville heaps fire on the system.Stephen Vasciannie, an attorney-at-law, teaches at the UWI, Mona.

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