Dawn Ritch, Contributor
LIKE many people in Jamaica, I'm expecting a general election shortly. The Prime Minister has announced $200 million for a make-work programme islandwide, and already the sidewalks on Mountain View Road have been obliterated by concrete planter boxes. No one can use them.
New roads are feverishly being built, and old roads repaired. The contracts for these, as well as new housing however, have come in for well-deserved criticism from the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP). These contracts seem to have gone in the main to well-known supporters of the ruling People's National Party (PNP).
It seems obvious therefore, that when the next general election rolls around the PNP will have no money problem. The same cannot be said for either the JLP or the National Democratic Movement (NDM).
Without money a political party has no election or organisational machinery. If the JLP is to win the next election therefore, votes will just have to levitate into the ballot box.
The lure
Both Opposition Leader Edward Seaga and Bruce Golding, leader of the NDM, firmly believe, however, that they only have to make their parties sexy enough and financial support from Jamaicans will be forthcoming.
Nothing could be further from the truth. The advertising campaign alone will cost $20 million and by the time the cars are rented, T-shirts and brochures printed, and public meetings held, we're running into tens of millions more on a per party basis.
It will therefore take a minimum $60 million for each party to run the next election. There is no Jamaican company or individual, or groups of them, capable of coming up with that class of money in this country any longer.
Jamaicans are currently not servicing the debt on their homes and motor vehicles. Four years ago it was nothing to give $5,000 or $10,000 to a candidate. Today that money must go to the Jamaica Public Service Company, or else.
Nor should the Opposition parties be misled by the balance sheets of Jamaica's remaining indigenous financial institutions. If all their balance sheets were to be aggregated the numbers would far exceed the amount of Government paper in circulation.
Double counting
The cause of that is quite a bit of double counting. The same transactions move through four different institutions. One sells repos to the other, and then that one buys securities from the next, and so on. It is all the same $20 billion, but the sum appears on everybody's balance sheet. This is all legal and legitimate, but is still just the circulation of the same funds.
The Bank of Jamaica is fond of telling us that this or that issue has been over-subscribed. What they don't tell us is that these bids are commonly called "flyers", efforts just to get the rates up. If the last bid was 17.5 per cent, then bids are sent in for 18.5 per cent or 19.25 pre cent in the sure knowledge that success may be remote. And if the worst happens and their bids are accepted then they know they have a bridging period of a day or a week to find the money.
Jamaica's greatest human efforts today are simply taken up with trying to restrain financial losses. The Opposition parties need to recognise this, so that they can understand that there is a world of difference between people chasing Government paper and making a financial contribution to a political party.
At the other end of the scale there is a similar lesson to be learnt from a recent initiative by Courts Jamaica. That company recently offered to extend the period of hire purchase for existing customers who may be delinquent. The customers get the benefit of smaller monthly payments, and the company still gets the benefit of the interest on the loan. Considering that Courts's customers need make no deposits, the economic desperation of its market is evidently worsening by the day.
Financial woes
That is hardly surprising. People have no cash. The level of non-performing loans, business failures and lay-offs are obvious. Corporate Jamaica itself is either in the dust bin, or indebted to FINSAC.
Everybody knows that our Government had been hoping for flows in the third quarter, which have now been disrupted because the IMF, citing internal staffing problems, has deferred its visit to Jamaica.
More to the point perhaps is that the Ministry of Finance was just not ready for that visit since certain targets are plainly off-target. But in the end what this means is that there will be no money coming in until February next year, when the IMF has completed its check.
The JLP needs to recognise all of this, so that there can be no doubt whatsoever about the need to go off-shore for fund-raising.
They can raise US$100,000 in a flash by asking 100 people overseas each to give US$100 and each to get another 10 people to do the same. Go to people here in Jamaica and ask each to give $4,500 and get nowhere. That $4,500 is the telephone or cell bill.
When the well-known business people want to sell their business what they're really saying is that the business is more trouble than it's worth. If they sold they would have the cash, and never had to worry again about labour, bureaucracy and receivables. That's the way everybody feels who still has a business in Jamaica. The Jamaican business sector is therefore no longer composed of individuals who are (legitimately) able to make a contribution to a political party.
The signs are clear that a general election will be held in the next four months. The members of the JLP need to start a structured programme of overseas phone calls to raise money. Or place their faith in magic.
