Patterson and DaviesITS the start of the year and this is the time when all us columnists do those awful year in review and year ahead features.
Primarily, because we can be a lazy lot, particularly after too much turkey.
Well, I will give you some predictions during today's outing but not before touching on some nuts and bolts economic issues.
I'm still in a Grinch-like mood and fancy putting the cat among the pigeons to ruffle a few feathers before I go for the knock out punch. Sorry about the cliches but I had one too many Red Stripes over the break.
This will be a year of great "interest", pardon the pun. With a huge pile of domestic debt, which could be as much as $90 billion, set to come on to the Budget in April as a result of the Financial Sector Adjustment Company (FINSAC) bail-out, interest rates are more important than ever.
Finance Minister Dr. Omar Davies' plan to bring interest rates down to 14 per cent by next April appears to be in "tatters" I said so at the end of November. Well, I was generous. It was always a plan doomed to struggle. With rates comfortably above 20 per cent, a sustainable drop before the end of March will, I am sad to say, be attempted once again and fail miserably.
What's new. Whoops, first prediction of the new year, far sooner than I anticipated.
The rising interest cost on a domestic debt pile of more than $270 billion, is daunting and adds a demand for $12 billion plus in fresh cash.
The latest revenue figures show that we are four per cent behind expectations. Between April and November this year total revenue from tax and other income topped $64.9 billion, some 19 per cent ahead of a year ago but still four per cent or close to $3 billion behind budget. That means, we will soon see another set of revised estimates of expenditure soon, as Dr. Davies details where we intend to trim the fat.
This is another prediction, which I'm pretty safe on, because we always have a revised estimate.
Well, no data on spending yet but its bound to highlight capital cuts and hard times ahead. Not quite a prediction, just the reality of where we are.
2001 is a critical year, which could well see a general election called in November. Yes, its another forecast, slipped in to keep the political hacks among you focused. Its likely that we'll see a "by-election" in Danny "My Hero" Melville's old North East St. Ann.
Mr. Melville surged in my estimation at the end of the year when he resigned. "My role as a parliamentarian seems to be defined as an attender of funerals, co-ordinator of patronage and a symbol of tribalism....I find I can no longer be a part of a system that glorifies mediocrity and denigrates any vision of excellence." Mr. Melville made his most cutting of good-byes, prior to hopping off the island to Barbados or some other Caribbean isle for one of his many frequent jaunts overseas. Oh to be a speech writer.
The substance of Mr. Melville's claim is yet to be addressed and at the heart of the current administration's problems.
The chronic lack of management skill amplified during the Fat Cat Salary Scandal, (I love that phrase), has dogged this administration.
Perhaps we should form a committee to investigate what has gone wrong.
In fact, that brings me to my next forecast, that we will again see a plethora of official commissions, committees and reports carried out to tell us what we already know.
We can't manage, won't manage and in many case are incapable of improving the lot of the average man in the street, through simple common sense economics. The continued moves to "stabilise" the economy will continue and more people will leave and look for opportunities elsewhere.
Despite all this pointed towards the Government and our economy, my biggest concern is the private sector, which failed in the most critical task of last year.
It had a golden opportunity to force a change of attitude on the crime front and did not confront the central issue, which in my mind is the attitude of inevitability.
What exactly did we the people get from that showdown meeting with the Prime Minister? I hate to tell our "leaders", gunmen continue to roam freely and kill at will, as the annual crime statistics indicate. I don't know about you, but do you get a sense that the Adams family and his motley crew are "improving" the crime situation?
I can with my final prediction, forecast with confidence that the private sector will expand in 2001. Unfortunately, its in the informal, grey or blatantly illegal import/export and trading sectors, where growth is really likely to come.
That old slogan, if you can't beat them join them, appears to be in the ascendancy, with more and more business people looking for new and different ways to avoid paying tax in order to earn a living.
And if you can't tax it, it means that it's bad for nine to fivers like me, who are forced to pick up the bills for my informal brothers and sisters looking to make a buck.
Whatever I say, I think one thing is certain. Nothing much will change for the majority of our people, for the dynamic growth we all desire is still out of focus.
