Tony Myers, ContributorMarch 8, 2001 is now history. The people of North East St. Ann went to the polls and sent a clear message to the ruling People's National Party (PNP).
Based on the preliminary results of the by-election, the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) under the leadership of Edward Seaga must be commended for such an excellent performance.
A careful examination of the results puts to rest any doubt as to the capacity of the JLP to out-general the PNP in the field. The JLP were able to bring out their supporters, not just some, but all their supporters to the poll, while the PNP machinery for the first time since 1989 failed to do the same.
Thursday's preliminary results, when compared to 1997, had the JLP increasing their support by 681 votes (9.6 per cent) while the PNP had a dramatic reversal of 1,916 votes (20.9 per cent).
The National Democratic Movement (NDM) an increase of 222 votes (42.9 per cent) and the Independent candidate 0.3%. The preliminary results were as follows:
North East St. Ann was originally a part of the Eastern St. Ann constituency of political giant, Dr. Ivan Stewart Lloyd. In 1959 as a result of a changes in the constitution, the number of constituencies islandwide was increased from 32 to 45. The parish of St. Ann received two additional seats. As a consequence, boundaries were redrawn and among the four newly created constituencies was St. Ann North East.
It was business as usual for the PNP, the fact that St. Ann North Eastern seat was created from the strong PNP dominated Eastern St. Ann constituency. It was therefore no surprise when Edwin R. Tucker (PNP) convincingly defeated S.A. Lambie of the JLP by 3,298 votes (PNP 6,570, JLP 3,272), Electors on List 14,104.
The JLP first won the seat in 1980. Bobby Marsh who had failed in 1974 and 1976, won by a landslide in 1980 by polling 9,979 votes to the PNP's Vinroy Brown 6,941, a majority of 3,038 for the JLP. The PNP did not contest the 1983 snap election, and Robert Marsh was therefore returned unopposed by acclamation.
Come 1989, the PNP Norman Washington Manley Bowen restored PNP control by defeating Patricia Pink (JLP) who had won the St. Ann South East seat in 1983 over Charles Johnson (JUF) and Independent Hugh Commack, no contest. Bowen polled 9,532 votes to Ms. Pink 6,227 majority 3,305. Mr. Bowen retained the seat for the PNP in 1993 with a significantly reduced majority of 1,535. PNP 6,411 to JLP 4,876.
The writing was on the wall. With Mr. Bowen not seeking re-election, due to frustration, Danny Melville who has been around from Vivian Blake's time was called upon to represent the PNP. Mr. Melville had a comfortable margin of victory 2,088 based on the fact that it was an unprecedented third term for the PNP. So from 1959 to 1997 the constituency of North East St. Ann has had over seven different MPs.
I wrote in The Gleaner, Tuesday, November 4, 1997, under the caption St. Ann North East A difficult seat to predict: "The voters list for the upcoming general election has moved dramatically from 17,627 in 1993 to 25,600 (approximately a 45.2 per cent increase). With this sort of increase it seems almost impossible to accurately predict the outcome of the election as it relates to the margin of victory. One thing is clear, North East St. Ann is one of the 19 marginal seats that the PNP will retain."
Misplaced hope
Based on the results of the March 8, 2001 by-election, it is quite clear that the voters of North East St. Ann gave their support to the PNP in 1997 pinning their hope on the likelihood of Danny Melville giving them the kind of representation the revered Dr. Ivan Lloyd was instrumental in providing when North East St. Ann was a part of Eastern St. Ann.
Mr. Melville walked away after three years totally fed up with the system of governance that exists in Jamaica, he says. Once again the electors of North East St. Ann were left without representation.
Well, on March 8, 2001, they spoke. A message was sent to all parties. To the NDM, the voters of North East St. Ann, in a clear and unequivocal statement, said there is no room for you at this time in this constituency. You have not demonstrated the capacity to improve our lot so go back to the drawing board.
To the JLP they said we are giving you an opportunity to unite behind your leader and present a viable alternative to the PNP. Do not regard this very marginal victory as a tool to get reckless and careless as you did prior to 1980. We are dealing with bread and butter here (economics) not ideology, that is dead. So go therefore and use this little majority wisely. Should you fail to do so, history will condemn you. Put Jamaica first.
To the incumbent PNP the North East St. Ann voters have said: Enough is enough, we have been in travail for too long, break up your 'folly ground' or face the consequences in the upcoming general elections.
Wake-up call
The results are more than a wake-up call for the PNP it is a strong reminder to the incumbent Government that power comes from the people and those who use such power unwisely would surely lose it.
To Prime Minister P.J. Patterson, I say, all is not lost for the PNP. For you to succeed where others have failed you must have the support of a sane and earnest people, for it is the people, their spirit, their exaltation, their sagacity, which in the end will create a society of justice, unity and love, resting on the broad principle of equality - social, political and economic.
To all our leaders, indeed every Jamaican, I say: Let us stand up and be counted among those who are prepared to preserve a nation and the only nation worth preserving is a nation of brotherly kingship and affection under God.
What is the leadership of Government worth to P.J., Eddie or Bruce if we have no country?
Tony Myers is a statistician and political analyst.
