Geof BrownMANY QUESTIONS of substance have arisen for the three major political parties (or for the two major and the one minor, if you will) following the North-east, St. Ann by-election, won by the JLP. The question for the NDM no doubt is, can it survive? For the JLP the question it seems to me is, can it maintain its advantage? But for the PNP, it would appear the question is, can it prevail?
That question has surfaced directly or indirectly since the significant set-back of the PNP loss in the recent by-election, reflecting a swing of some 16 per cent against the party in its former stronghold. In my own guest appearances on radio talk shows, First Edition of KLAS and Nationwide of Hot 102, the matter of the PNP's ability to prevail has been squarely put on the table.
I have therefore given it some thought. And since of the three parties the PNP stands to lose most of previously acquired ground, let us examine some of the issues facing them.
In the first place, the question appears to be valid. It is not just because of the by-election loss. Rather, it is the indication from the opinion polls that there is undeniably lost ground in other former party strongholds, as well as perhaps a national trend in the same direction. And incidentally, let us stop wasting time deriding the polls as if they are some kind of half-baked but lucky guess-work not unlike the primitive reading of entrails or the 'may-bes' of tea leaves. It's about time those who influence public opinion take time out to educate themselves on how opinion polls are based solidly on the sciences of human behaviour, and why modern polls are so often right.
Both the Stone and Anderson polls were right on the by-election, the Stone polls (via Mark Wignall) was even more spot-on. No surprise about that in view of the track record set by its founder the late Professor Carl Stone. So the PNP must face the question. It seems to me there are some four areas in which the party will be challenged to maintain, let alone retain, its viability.
First, there is the alienation from its usual strong grass-roots support. It is no secret that this time around, the legendary ground organisation failed or collapsed in the by-election in NE St. Ann.
Is there similar collapse and/or failure in other former strongholds and also nation-wide? Did the elevation of General-Secretary Senator Maxine Henry-Wilson to Ministerial work divert her celebrated skills and her focused energy away from maintaining the on-the-ground support base? Obviously the party will need highly effective strategic work to return to that level which most took for granted would remain substantially intact.
Secondly, there is the matter of the JLP challenge. Already pronouncements by the leader Mr. Seaga has set the stage for a call for early general elections. Although several have condemned the JLP leader for appearing to usurp the constitutional prerogative of the Prime Minister to call elections, the challenge to the PNP is real. There are shades of 1979-1980 here, when JLP pressure forced the hand of Michael Manley to call an early election. The PNP lost by a landslide. True, the realities are different now. But the PNP is not going to be allowed the focus on governance it badly needs to keep.
Thirdly, the state of the economy and the related state of the infrastructure (read bad roads particularly) will present the governing party with a timetable challenge. Given another three or four years in power, it is possible that despite the problems of the current economic model, there could be a turn-around. With that could come increased employment, a revalued dollar, revived manufacturing, enhanced agriculture and exports, and most bad roads could by then be repaired. But the PNP as a government will have half or less than half the requisite timetable. Hence the challenge.
Fourthly, there is the matter of the internal fabric. A major loss plus an apparent negative trend, do not necessarily continue to form morale boosters. The walk-away of Danny Melville as North-East St Ann MP indicates the kind of internal morale threat that can weaken a party's will to fight. It is true that one swallow does not a summer make, nor does the fact of three PNP Councillors and one former Minister not standing for re-election, signal an internal rout. And it is also true that not since founder Norman Manley and his expulsion of the four H's has the PNP had anything like the internal dissident conflagrations of the JLP.
But taken together, the four significant challenges outlined here will put the PNP between a rock and a hard place. To prevail, the party must at least, successfully meet those challenges. Can it? Your guess is as good as mine, perhaps better.
Geof Brown is an HRD consultant who lectures part-time at the University of the West Indies.
