Election Day in Britain AS THE sun rises over Jamaica, Britons will be in polling booths voting to return the Labour Party to office. Privately, even the country's Conservative opposition concedes that Tony Blair will be re-elected as Prime Minister. The question now is simply how big the majority will be. And, of course, why Mr. Blair is such a shoo-in. Although there is evidence of fatigue with the ways of Mr. Blair and his government, the Conservatives have failed to capitalise on it. Some blame the Conservative leader, William Hague, for a poor campaign. Others say that the prevailing circumstances make it pretty much impossible for anyone to beat Labour. Certainly, these are peaceful and prosperous times for Britain. Labour thus enjoys a high degree of approval. In that respect, conditions mirror those in the USA in last year's election. The big difference, though, is that while Al Gore had to contend with a conservative opposition mobilised by disgust with his then-boss, Bill Clinton, Mr. Blair has done nothing to seriously annoy his country's conservative voters. His personal behaviour is above reproach if anything, some people find him cloyingly righteous and his economic policies do not diverge radically from the Thatcherite blend. For many analysts, that has been the key to Labour's success (which symbolically now prefers to call itself New Labour). Mr. Blair has stolen so much of the conservative agenda that the Conservatives have lost much of their raison-d'etre. Meanwhile, whereas the Conservatives used to always be seen as the more prudent managers, in office, Labour has finally dispelled its radical ghosts. Its policies have been cautious and its approach to governing has been very friendly to the market. Indeed, its decision to grant the Bank of England independence on monetary policy was an even more business-oriented move than the Conservatives ever countenanced. In effect, Mr. Blair has rather cleverly taken the substance of the right but clothed it in the style of the left. To many Britons, his obsession with 'spin' and image is tiresome. They resent the Americanisation of their country's politics that has been driven by the same sort of consultants who advised Bill Clinton. All the same, they have yet to find a good reason to turf the government from office. For its part, the Conservative Party, Britain's principal opposition group, has not yet given British voters a compelling reason to be done with Labour. In particular, it has apparently failed to exploit discontent with Labour's performance on public services. Instead, William Hague has shifted his party to the right, taking a hard stand on European integration and immigration, among other things. This may please the Conservative bedrock. However, it was hardly about to abandon its party. In the meantime, the move alienated more centrist voters. The problem for the Conservatives is that their natural support-base is ageing, and thus diminishing. They are going to have to find new constituents if they are to regain their former dominance of British politics. Had they gone after Labour's management of the public sector, they might have struck a responsive chord, though it is doubtful they could ever have won this election. Instead, by going after issues that matter less to ordinary Britons, they left Labour to paper over its own weakness with promises to do better in its second term than it had in its first. If the Conservatives are trounced today, Mr. Hague will come under pressure to resign and the party may be revamped. On the other hand, if the complacency of Labour voters, who may feel an election is in the bag, causes them to stay at home, the Conservatives may put in a better performance than expected. Mr. Hague may then gain a new lease on life, though that should hardly be taken as a mandate for more of the same. The future threat to Labour will not likely come from its right, though. Growing disenchantment with the party's right-wing shift and image-conscious media manipulation is turning off some traditional Labour supporters. They will stay home, or have been gravitating to marginal parties. They will not affect the outcome of this year's election. But as the Greens did to Al Gore last year, they may yet come back to haunt Labour in the future. John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
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