Letter of the Day - Met Office justifies handling of 'Chantal' threat THE EDITOR, Sir: JUDGING FROM published letters to the Editor in relation to Jamaica's close encounter with Tropical Storm Chantal, it appears that there is a cloud of uncertainty regarding the manner in which the Meteorological Service handled the situation. On the one hand, there are views complimentary of our performance and on the other, views that were condemnatory. In that light, we first wish to thank those who have given our performance a positive rating. We encourage them to impress upon others the dangers of downplaying or disregarding warnings and the eminently good sense of timely preparations, well ahead of the onset of forecast hurricane or tropical storm conditions. With regard to the contrary views as carried in your Letter Of The Day captioned 'Chantal and the Met Office', published Tuesday, August 21, 2001 and echoed in the letter captioned, 'The Met Office and Crying Wolf', published Thursday, August 23, 2001, we are deeply concerned. This is so not because of the unfavourable rating of our performance, but because of the obvious misperception that 'Chantal' was never a threat to Jamaica, in spite of the abundant and overwhelming evidence that its centre passed within a mere 160 kilometres of the island's south coast. We are convinced, therefore, that this must have been the result of a genuine misunderstanding of the information conveyed in our bulletins. Consequently, we wish to take this opportunity to pass on some information, which, although specifically intended for clarification of the contributors in question, could prove to be of some interest to the wider public. This should be viewed in the context that, by definition, a Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch means that hurricane/tropical storm conditions pose a possible threat within 36 hours, and a Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning means that hurricane/tropical storm conditions are expected to affect the island within 24 hours. 1. 'Chantal' was first classified as a Tropical Storm at 10:00 a.m. on Thursday, August 16, near latitude 13 degrees north, longitude 55 degrees west. 2. Tropical Storm Chantal lost strength and was downgraded to a strong Tropical Wave during the night of Thursday, August 16. 3. The remnants of 'Chantal' regained strength on Friday, August 17 and were upgraded to Tropical Storm status at 4:00 p.m. near latitude 14.3 degrees north, longitude 67.4 degrees west or about 912 kilometres ESE of Morant Point, Jamaica. NOTE: Latitude 14.3 degrees north, indicating a steady but subtle northward drift in its generally westward motion. Maximum sustained winds near the centre were then 95 km/h with higher gusts. 4. At 4:00 p.m. on Saturday August 18, Tropical Storm Chantal was near latitude 15.6 degrees North, longitude 76.2 degrees west, or about 265 km south-south-east of Kingston, and at 8:00 p.m. it was near latitude 15.6 degrees North and longitude 77.6 degrees West, or about 250 km south-southwest of Kingston. Tropical Storm force winds extended 230 km to the north and east of the centre. 5. If these details are not being challenged, then it must be accepted that Tropical Storm Chantal passed approximately 160 km off the south coast of the island and during its passage, Jamaica was well within the range of associated storm force winds to the north of its centre. In the circumstances therefore, Tropical Storm Warnings were absolutely necessary and justifiable. 6. Considering that the system had always been in an environment that was favourable for strengthening, the Hurricane Watch that was in effect from 5:00 p.m. Friday was also appropriate. Indeed, the potential for strengthening was sufficiently strong to require the hoisting of a Hurricane Warning for a brief period Saturday from 5:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. 7. Finally, from: Photographs of damage related to 'Chantal' published in The Gleaner The destruction of the Meteorological Service's anemometer mast on the Pedro Bank, which is approximately 120-130 km off the south coast, Recorded wind gusts of 56 knots (104 km/h) and 64 knots (118 km/h, i.e. the threshold of hurricane force winds) at the Norman Manley International Airport on Saturday, August 18; it must be sufficiently convincing that 'Chantal' was a real threat to the island and that we only missed its full effects by a hair's breadth. I am, etc., SYLVIA McGILLS (Mrs.) Director, Meteorological Service
|
