John RapleyTHE EVENTS of the last week in Afghanistan have been so dramatic that both analysts and policy-makers are scrambling to make sense of them. Under the heavy American aerial bombardment, the Taliban apparently crumbled more quickly than almost anybody expected. So quickly, in fact, that a few observers have wondered if there is more to it than meets the eye.
Some suggest that the rapidity of the Taliban retreat, and the lack of resistance put up by their supposedly battle-hardened and zealous fighters, could not have resulted from a sudden loss of morale. Instead, it may be that the Taliban are, as they themselves insist, engaged in a planned retreat. Once they lost Mazar-i-Sharif, the Taliban's leaders may have decided that rather than fight a war of attrition in the north, where they were never firmly rooted anyhow, their troops would do better to return to their southern heartland.
If this is so and admittedly, it looks unlikely grave risks still lie ahead for what remains of the Taliban. As its hold over the country breaks up, the Taliban may decide to retreat to safe territory and revert to guerrilla warfare. This would mean that American aircraft would no longer have entrenched positions to bomb. But on the other hand, some experts caution that the Taliban have little experience with the sort of guerrilla warfare which the mujahideen (Muslim rebels) used to expel Soviet troops in the 1980s.
Moreover, the terrain in the south may not be as well-suited to guerrilla tactics. However, if the Taliban has weakened badly, and possibly collapsed altogether, it might be reasonable to say that the American position has not strengthened commensurately. Instead, the big winners in the last few days have been the Northern Alliance, in whose favour the American bombing tipped the balance. True, the Americans want to expel the Taliban. So far, things are going their way. Yet the risk to them is that the breakneck pace of developments has suddenly blown open the conflict. And the danger now is that events on the ground may redefine this conflict and move things beyond American control.
For one thing, the Northern Alliance pledge to the Americans not to take Kabul fell by the wayside pretty quickly. This was hardly surprising. Given that diplomatic efforts to forge some kind of new Afghan coalition have as yet borne no fruit, the flight of the Taliban left a vacuum. If the Northern Alliance did not occupy Kabul, the city would likely have descended into anarchy. So Alliance commanders did what they had to. Now that they are in Kabul, though, they would not be unreasonable to judge that their bargaining power in future negotiations for a transitional government has just increased significantly. The risk is that their leaders may now hold out for a better deal. In the process, they may antagonise the Pashtun population which provided the bedrock for the Taliban.
Already, the Northern Alliance are refusing to allow any Taliban elements into a new government. And the former king of Afghanistan, around whom the Americans were hoping to build a new regime, has expressed his own anger at the Northern Alliance's move into the capital. In short, the bickering that characterised the old Northern Alliance government may come back. And if Afghanistan fragments again, nobody will benefit, least of all the Americans. For then their arch-enemies will continue to operate in the south while the surrounding region grows more unstable. Therefore, the coming days may well be crucial.
Behind closed doors, there will be feverish activity as diplomats try to cobble together an alliance acceptable to all the major Afghan parties. At the same time, there will also be diplomatic attempts to wean southern leaders to this new alliance. However, if such an alliance fails to materialise, the situation on the ground could deteriorate as factional differences harden.
Within hours of the Taliban's flight from Kabul, reports began emerging of warlords carving up the country. Thus, the Americans and their allies may find themselves forced to intervene more aggressively to prevent things spiralling out of control. If that eventuality comes to pass, the smiles at the Pentagon may well give way to the furrowed brows already seen at the State Department.
John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
