John RapleyAS THE US winds down its war in Afghanistan, it may be that a new and more dangerous front is opening. The conflict over Kashmir dates back to the partition of the Indian subcontinent. When the British withdrew from their Indian colonies in 1947, the Indian National Congress called for India to remain one. Committed as it was to secular nationalism, the Congress said all Indians were united. However the Muslim League maintained that with Hindus being numerically dominant, Muslims would never feel secure in India. They called for a Muslim homeland, to be called Pakistan.
Britain acceded to the latter view and partitioned India. However, centuries of intermingling meant that the division was bound to be uneasy. The two countries were born in blood in 1947, as rival claimants to territory sought to include as much of British India in one state or the other. One area where the conflict has continued to simmer is Kashmir. This beautiful, rugged Himalayan state was once essentially independent. Some Kashmiris would like it to become so again, whilst both India and Pakistan lay claim to parts of it. Its borders have thus always been a dangerous fault-line.
Now, with both India and Pakistan being nuclear powers, it has become one of the world's most dangerous frontiers. Complicating the situation in recent years has been the upsurge of religious militants in both Pakistan and India. The global upsurge of Islamic fundamentalism since the 1970s has not left Pakistan untouched. Islamists have become increasingly powerful in the country's military and security services. They see the Kashmir conflict as a religious struggle. In India, meanwhile, the rise of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) responded in no small part to the challenge of Islamic fundamentalism.
While the BJP, which now governs India, is only two decades old, its antecedents stretch all the way back to the 19th century. Originally formed to defend Indian identity in the face of a Christian coloniser, Hindu nationalism has in recent years come to see Muslims as the threat. Rejecting the secular nationalism of Congress, the BJP has always maintained that India is, first and foremost, a Hindu nation. Most recently, a new element has been added to this already-complex mixture. This is the presence in Kashmir of international Islamist networks. Kashmir, like Afghanistan, has proved a receptive soil on which organisations like al Qaida can carry out their training. They see the Kashmiri struggle as religious, not national, and therefore one which concerns all Muslims.
Last month, a suicide attack was launched on the Indian Parliament. India immediately blamed Kashmiri militants. It called for Pakistan to clamp down on their organisations. If Pakistan failed to do so, India would. The world's biggest democracy signalled its resolve by massing troops on its border with Pakistan. Under intense US pressure, Pakistan has begun arresting militants from organisations which it says are not indigenous Kashmiris, but rather international terrorists. For the time being, this appears to have eased the tensions at the front line. Still, the dangers remain high. To begin with, there is the possibility that events at the front could draw the two countries into war, which neither government appears to want. Moreover, there is the added danger that the Pakistani leader, General Pervez Musharraf, could be overthrown by Islamists. Kashmir remains a popular cause in Pakistan. If General Musharraf is seen to be doing the bidding of New Delhi or Washington, his fragile position could become untenable.
At this stage, it is pure speculation as to what the motives of the suicide-attackers in New Delhi were. However, it is not beyond reason to wonder if al Qaida was involved. By heightening tensions between Pakistan and India, this incident has taken Pakistan's attention away from its border with Afghanistan.
As troops are deployed to the front with India, Pakistan's ability to interdict fleeing al Qaida and Taliban fighters is scaled back. Kashmir thereby becomes a safer refuge for al Qaida. Some analysts go so far as to suggest that al Qaida, which has ties to Pakistan's intelligence agency, may try to overthrow General Musharraf, and thereby install a sympathetic government. Pakistan would then take Afghanistan's place as its new base. For the time being, the situation is (relatively) calm, but exceptionally tense. Stay posted.
John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
