WHEN the General Election takes place in Jamaica this year, there should be a high voter-turnout to choose the next Government to run the country, according to a public opinion poll conducted by Don Anderson and his team from Market Research Services Ltd.
But while the majority of persons interviewed say they are registered to vote, those who are not seem to have no intention of getting registered, most of them saying they are not interested, they are sceptical of the benefit of elections to citizens, or that they are turned off by crime and violence in the society.
According to this latest poll, which was conducted for The Gleaner, a high percentage of individuals interviewed say they intend to vote when elections are called. The survey was conducted between January 10 and 21 and involved interviews with 1,105 persons in 56 communities across the island. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent.
When asked:
Are you registered to vote? 78.5 per cent of those interviewed said, "Yes", and 21.5 per cent said, "No."
Voter registration, according to the poll, was highest among females, older persons, persons in the upper-income bracket, and persons outside of Kingston, and particularly in the parishes of Portland, St. Thomas and Hanover.
Do you intend to vote when elections are called? 73.3 per cent answered, "Yes"; 11.8 per cent said, "No"; 12.1 per cent were "Not sure", and 2.7 per cent had no answer.
The results represent just under 63 per cent of all persons of voting age who were interviewed.
Highest voter intentions are recorded among persons interviewed in St. Elizabeth (87 per cent); St. Mary (83 per cent); Clarendon (83 per cent) and among persons in the 45-54 age group (84 per cent).
The lowest voting intention was recorded among people interviewed in St. James (56.5 per cent) and in Portland (50 per cent).
Anderson points out that the claimed levels of voter-registration and the likely turnout will not necessarily coincide. He emphasised that those who are not registered to vote, do not, for the most part seemed inclined to register for the elections. He said too that some groups, including the very young, the 18-24 year-olds, say they did not intend to register before the elections.
The incidence of persons who do not intend to register is highest among females (46 per cent), persons 35-44 years old (48.8 per cent), middle-income persons (46.5 per cent) and persons in Trelawny, Westmoreland and St. Thomas.
There appears to be a growing number of persons who are less inclined to vote. Mr. Anderson said the largest single response from those who said they were not registering for the election was that they were not interested. "This is a significant negative in so far as they appear to have mentally blocked out considerations of voting in the next election," the pollster said. "Others are sceptical of the usefulness of doing so while there is another group who do not intend to become involved because of the high levels of crime and violence in the society."
Fourteen per cent of all persons interviewed fell in the category of those who do not intend to register to vote. Forty-four per cent say they would not vote for any of the political parties. However, the majority of those who indicated a preference said they would vote for the People's National Party (PNP) rather than for either the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) or the newly-formed United People's Party (UPP).
TOMORROW: DO VOTERS WANT AN EARLY ELECTION?
