THE GOVERNING People's National Party would have received a boost last weekend in its quest for a fourth consecutive term in office with the publication of the latest polls commissioned by this newspaper.According to the polls, Prime Minister Patterson is once again seen as the person best suited to lead the country at this time. Mr. Patterson is favoured by 37.3 per cent of the persons polled, gaining a six-point lead over the Leader of the Opposition, Mr. Seaga who was favoured by 31.1 per cent. It is the first time in recent polls that Mr. Patterson has been favoured over Mr. Seaga as the person best suited to lead the country.
The PNP's favourable rating is also reflected in the poll finding which showed it leading the JLP as the party which a majority intends to vote for when the elections are called.
Of the persons polled, 24.1 per cent have expressed a preference for the PNP with 23.1 per cent saying they will vote for the JLP, a lead of one percentage point and within the poll's plus or minus margin of error of three per cent. Again, this is the first time in close to a year that the PNP is ahead in the polls conducted by this newspaper.
With elections set to take place this year it must be of some concern to both parties that the polls show that 46 per cent of those interviewed are still undecided about which party they intend to support. While, in what would seem to be a contradiction given the PNP's lead, 55 per cent of those interviewed say they expect a change of Government when the elections are called.
The PNP's lead in the polls has to be judged against a background of an alarming crime rate, lay-offs in both the public and private sectors and an economy that has registered no growth of any significance in close to 10 years. These are all factors, which usually result in a Government being booted out of office.
The resurgence of the party could have resulted from the fact that it took the by-election loss in St. Ann last March as a wake-up call and has been working hard since then to reconnect with the people. Mr. Patterson has certainly heightened his public profile, opening roads, housing schemes, shopping plazas and whatever else that is likely to have an impact on the electorate.
The pollster has found that the support for the PNP is coming mainly from males, persons aged 45 and older and upper income persons in Kingston, Clarendon, Manchester, St. Thomas and Trelawny.
The support for the JLP is coming from females, persons under 34 years old and the poorer segments of the population. The party enjoys marginal support in St. Catherine. St. Ann, St. James, St. Elizabeth, Westmoreland, Hanover, Portland and St. Mary.
How all of this evolves as we approach the elections will be very interesting.
