- FileOne of the three men linked to the British Link-Up Crew who were gunned down in the Mountain View area of East Kingston on January 8.
Anthony Woodburn, Contributor
ASHAMEDLY, Jamaica is one of the most violent countries in the world. This is corroborated by the statistical department of the Jamaica Constabulary Force.
This research will analyse reported murders, shootings and their cleared up rates for the period 1960-2001. Murders in Jamaica will be compared with murders in Barbados and the Cayman Islands over different periods.
Though shooting is not the only cause of murder in Jamaica, it has contributed significantly to it. The statistics presented will be approximated to the nearest 10. A decade may be defined as a ten-year period, for example, 1960-1969 inclusive. Having completed two years in the 2000s, the analysis will be presented accordingly. Police shootings are not included in this presentation.
YEARLY HIGHLIGHTS
An analysis of the data shows the best and worst years Jamaica has seen. 1960 saw the lowest shootings, totalling 23. 1961 had the lowest murders, 51. The year 1960 also saw the best rate of 'cleared-up' murders, 60 murders and 58 cleared up, an enviable rate of 96.7 per cent. Also, the best rate of cleared-up shootings, 23 shootings and 19 cleared up, a remarkable rate of 82 per cent.
Conversely, the highest murders occurred in 2001, an astronomical figure of 1,139. The year 1980 recorded the highest shootings, 2,283. The worst rate of murders cleared up was in 1996 when of the 925 murders, 328 were cleared up, a rate of 35.5 per cent. The worst figures for shootings cleared up was recorded in 1980, 2,283 shootings and 779 cleared up, 35 per cent.
Interestingly, the 1980 figures for shootings of 2,283 exceeds that of the period 1960-1970, with a total of 1,820. The 2001 murder figures of 1,139, exceeds the total murders for the period 1960-1970, with a total of 1,007.
Table I shows a simultaneous decline in murders and shootings for the period 1985-1989 over the period 1980-1984. Murders fell from 2,692 to 2,178, a 19.1 per cent decline, while shootings fell from 7,031 to 5,509, a 21.7 per cent decline.
On the other hand, 1995-1999 produced the most murders, 4,545 while 1980-1984 the most shootings, 7,031. The two-year period 2000-2001 shows an uncanny appetite for murders totalling 2,026, exceeding the total murders for the period 1960-1974, a total of 1,767 murders. The total murders and shootings reported between 1960 and 2001 are 18,058 and 36,430 respectively.
Table II is deserving of a cautious comparative analysis. All tables are showing a positive relationship between murders and shootings; that is, as murders increase, shootings increase also and vice versa. On close examination, you will observe that between the 1970s and 2000s the murder rate is rising faster than the shooting rate.
Among the various possibilities, I would like to advance two theories. It is either that other implements used in committing murders are increasing or gunmen are becoming more accurate or less cowardly in hitting their targets.
This trend must not be neglected anymore. For too long we have been concentrating on murders and neglecting shootings. Shootings are the cause of most murders and not the other way around. Table III shows our best period, in the decade of the 1960s. The lowest yearly average murder, 86 with an all time high average cleared up rate of 85 per cent and the lowest yearly average shootings, 138 with the highest average cleared up rate of 62 per cent.
The decade of the 1990s has been the worst, the highest yearly average murder, totalling 762. It produced also the highest yearly average shootings, 1,261. A yearly average of less than 48 per cent cleared up rate in both areas. The lowest yearly average shootings cleared up rate has been the decade of the 1980s, 43.7 per cent.
It seems quite justifiable to ask members of the security forces, especially those who have been there for more than 20 years, to explain dispassionately the reasons behind such low cleared-up rates.
The term "cleared-up", according to the Jamaican authorities, means that a crime has been solved, someone has been charged or the accused has died. Although the same term was used in the Cayman Islands up until 1995, I cannot say at this time whether the definition is consistent with their Jamaican counterpart.
Critics have argued that the term is somewhat suspect. I conclude that the police will have to explain the judicial process, which justifies the term "cleared-up".
Ironically, the average cleared up rate for murders in Jamaica for the period 1960-2001 is a disappointing 50.2 per cent, while that of shootings over the same period is 47.4 per cent. What has happened to our investigative skills?
Could it be that the introduction of the Suppression of Crimes Act in the 1970s and it being subsequently abolished in the late 1990s negatively affected the investigative skills and abilities of the police? Table III shows that the average cleared up rate for murders fell from 85 per cent in the 1960s to 60.6 per cent in the 1970s. It fell to 51.7 per cent in the 1980s and continued its downward slide in the 1990s to a low of 45.7 per cent - three successive decades of decline in cleared-up rate for murders.
The cleared-up rate for shootings declined also, from a rate of 47.3 per cent in the 1970s to 43.7 per cent in the 1980s. The 1990s showed an increase in the cleared-up rate, from 43.7 per cent in the 1980s to 48.1 per cent in the 1990s.
When the police were asked for a comment on the decline in cleared-up rates, their response was a mixture of resentment and stealth.
A glance at Barbados' and The Cayman Islands' crime statistics show the following: The reports were made available through the courtesies of the Commissioners of Police of Barbados and The Cayman Islands respectively.
Annual Report of the Commissioner of Police of Barbados for the period 1960-1964
Year Murder
1960 4
1961 6
1962 8
1963 5
1964 5
A total of 28 murders in five years, an average of six murders per year. The position is not significantly different today. Barbados' crime statistics have columns in addition to year and murder, "found guilty", "not guilty or special verdict" and "pending at December 31st each year".
Royal Cayman Islands Police
Services Annual Report 1995-1999
Year Murder
1995 3
1996 1
1997 0
1998 1
1999 1
Remarkable!
The following table will compare murders in all three countries for the period 1995-1999.
Year B'dos Jamaica Cay. Is.
| 1995 | 14 | 780 | 3 |
| 1996 | 15 | 925 | 1 |
| 1997 | 11 | 1038 | 0 |
| 1998 | 20 | 953 | 1 |
| 1999 | 23 | 849 | 0 |
| Total | 83 | 4545 | 5 |
Based on the statistics presented, it would seem that criminals set about with characteristic ruthlessness and terror to destroy our human capital, place unnecessary pressures on economic activities, depress social equilibrium and irrevocably distort the rights and freedoms of a people to choose a Government. The 2000s are shaping up to be a bloody decade as well.
In looking at strategies to stem the flow of guns and ammunition into Jamaica, we should understand the economics of arms. Five members of the United Nations Security Council are major arms producers who themselves have formed an arms producers cartel. They are China, France, Russian Federation, United Kingdom and the United States. Arms sales contribute significantly to their Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It makes absolutely no economic sense in asking them to assist us in stemming the flow of guns and ammunitions into Jamaica, unless, of course, you will be satisfied with a political answer. We need to look at other strategies.
We are masters of our future; we alone can change it the choice is ours. As we enter the 14th General Elections, let us reflect on the 18,058 Jamaicans murdered over the period 1960-2001. It might not have been politically motivated, nevertheless, lives have been lost.
Anthony Woodburn is a student at the UWI, Mona.
