D.K. DuncanIF THE ParliamentaryGeneral Election is held before May 31, 2002 there will be 1,263,633 persons registered and eligible to vote i.e. on the voters' list.
This is from a total of 1,653,703 persons in Jamaica who are over the age of 18 and therefore old enough to be registered and to vote. Therefore, 390,070 citizens or 23.6 per cent of persons over the age of 18 have not yet exercised their democratic right to have their names recorded as potential voters. Conversely, 76.4 per cent of persons old enough to vote have registered.
Results of the last two General Elections (1993 and 1997) have closely mirrored the Stone Poll figures since August 1991 when the trend to a large block of uncommitted voters was identified. This trend consolidated itself over the subsequent 11 years. The figures for the uncommitted (not participating) range from 47 per cent in August 1991 to 50 per cent in the March, 1993 General Election and 52 per cent in the December 1997 General Election.
If this trend holds for the 2002 General Election, an additional 25 per cent of persons, old enough to vote and already on the list, will not vote. This would represent approximately 413,425 persons. Together with the 390,070 citizens not yet registered this accounts for a grand total of 803,495. This is48 per cent of persons old enough to vote who would not participate in the electoral process on election day. As a consequence, 52 per cent or 850,208 persons, over the age of 18 could decide which party forms the next Government after the elections of 2002.
The two traditional parties - JLP and PNP have contested 12 General Parliamentary Elections since December, 1944 when elections were held for the first time under Universal Adult Suffrage. "The voter turnout as a per cent of persons old enough to vote" (Stone) shows the pattern as represented in Figure 1 (see below):
These figures are taken from Carl Stone's book Class, State and Democracy (1985) as well as Working Papers from the D.K.Duncan Political Institute (2002). They show a trend in the last two elections which is consistent with that shown in approximately 30 political polls done by the Stone Organisation since August 1991. The uncommitted figure grew to a high of 61 per cent in the November, 2000 polls when both traditionals (JLP/PNP) recorded a combined all-time low figure of 32 per cent (JLP 17 per cent, PNP 15 per cent, NDM 7 per cent).
The table in Figure 2 capsules information from which readers can follow recent trends and prepare for analyses of the next general election:
On the present list, female voters constitute 51 per cent or 644,551 voters while their male counterparts make up 49 per cent or 619,028 persons
Persons born since Jamaica gained political Independence in 1962, (i.e. 40 years old and under), represent 52 per cent or 658,091 of the total voter complement of 1,263,633.
Persons born after 1972 (i.e. 18-30 years old) constitute 26 per cent or 325,027 registered voters.
With an anticipated voter turn-out of approximately 850,000 persons, the voting pattern of the above categories could be significant in determining the outcome of the 2002 Elections.
It is not too late for persons "old enough to vote" to register. There is a continuous registration system which is easy to access. Persons registering for the first time will not be able to vote in General Election called before May 31, 2002. However, if eligible persons register before the end of March, 2002, they will be able to vote in elections called after May 31, 2002.
In the meantime, those old enough to vote registered or unregistered, should support the call of the Electoral Office of Jamaica (EOJ) and volunteer to join the pool of Election Day workers. Another option is to join the observer group CAFFE.
The challenge to civil society - the citizenry the uncommitted is to:
1. Get on the voters' list i.e. register this gives you an option to vote for either of the four parties or actively abstain.
2. Take an informed decision on Election Day.
3. Volunteer to be trained and to work as an EOJ official before and on Election Day.
4. Join CAFFE and formally monitor and observe the Election as well as Election Day activity.
Former General Secretary and Minister of Government of the PNP Administration in the 1970's, Dr. Duncan is currently in private dental practice and recently established "The D.K. Duncan Political Institute: Centre for Transformation and Political Entrepreneurship".E-mail dktruth@hotmail.com.
