John Rapley - Foreign FocusIN THE 1990s, Canada appeared for a short while to be on the verge of a break-up. Quebec's French voters were itching for separation, almost opting to secede in 1995. Meanwhile, voters in the anglophone provinces veered sharply rightwards, supporting American-style neo-conservatives who shared the separatists' desire to eviscerate the federal government.
At the time, the Prime Minister, Jean Chretien, an old-style politician if ever there was one, stayed his course, dismissing both threats. He was criticised for his complacency, and for refusing to compromise with Quebec's separatists. In hindsight, though, his stubbornness appears to have paid off. Canada's new right is in apparent disarray. In provinces where it came to power, Ontario and British Columbia, it is growing unpopular. At the federal level, its attempt to form a coherent political movement has, after a flying start, apparently foundered.
In large part, the new Canadian right appears to have become the latest victim of an old Canadian rule. Throughout the 20th century, Canada's Liberal Party built up its support base by forging ties to some of the largest constituencies in Canadian politics: francophones, ethnic minorities, Roman Catholics. This confined Canada's other federal parties to narrow constituencies in the anglophone and Protestant population.
Every generation or so, though, the Conservatives could sweep to power by building a coalition with that segment of the francophone electorate that disliked the Liberals, namely Quebec separatists. But needless to say, any marriage of conservative anglophones to francophone nationalists was bound to be rocky. Inevitably, a protest movement would splinter the Conservative party, hollowing it out, and dividing the right-wing vote for several elections.
In 1984, Conservative leader Brian Mulroney managed to build such a coalition with French-Canadian nationalists. But by the early 1990s, the nationalists had bolted. Equally, a western Canadian protest movement, called the Reform Party, siphoned off much of the Conservative anglophone base. Torn in two directions, the Conservative Party was annihilated in the 1993 federal election. Since then, it has been clawing its way back from the political wilderness.
The Reform Party eventually decided to disband itself and unite the right in what would be called the Alliance. Many Conservatives refused to have anything to do with this move, though, and Alliance ended up being little more than Reform by any other name. Unable to expand its base out of western Canada, the Alliance has been sundered by bitter divisions. Meanwhile, what remains of the Conservative Party continues to carp from the sidelines.
Things are looking little better for Quebec's separatists. Ironically, they may be the victims of their own success. In office in the French-speaking province of Quebec for much of the last generation, the separatists have implemented many policies to promote the French language and culture. Despite deep-seated Liberal antipathy to the separatists, Liberal governments in Ottawa have also helped promote the French language. As a result, Quebec has experienced something of a cultural renaissance, and today is one of the few places in the world where the French language is advancing. In other words, the need for Quebec independence is less obvious than it once was.
Meanwhile, died-in-the-wool separatists are apparently anageing and dwindling breed. Increasingly confident in their future as a people, Quebec voters now seem more preoccupied with good government than with battling the federal Liberals.
As a rule, when the Liberals come to power, they stay in office for about 20 years (barring brief interruptions). Given the current state of Canadian politics, this Liberal government looks set to do the same.
About the only threat to its domination is an increasingly bitter battle within the party over who will eventually inherit the mantle of the ageing Prime Minister. The heir-apparent, Paul Martin, faces angry accusations that he has concocted party membership rules in such a way as to ensure his supporters select the next leader.
Martin, though, is popular in Quebec, and could further roll back the separatists in that province. Besides, if too many people in the party oppose his rise, Prime Minister Chretien could just remain in office until Martin's advancing age forces him to withdraw from politics. Mr.
Chretien looks comfortable where he is, and seems to be in no particular rush to move on. Nor, it appears, is Canada.
John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
