By Prof. Gerald Lalor, Contributor
SLOWPOKE II Nuclear Research Reactor located at the International Centre for Environmental and Nuclear Sciences, UWI. - Contributed
THE BUSH administration has been sending encouraging signals to the United States nuclear power industry. This has been partly inspired by the increases in electricity costs and last summer's blackouts in California, but in fact, over the past several years American nuclear power plants have been performing well, and increased efficiencies have added about eight per cent per year to the electricity outputs.
Also, six plants have recently had their periods to decommissioning extended from the normal 40 years, and 40 more are expected to have their licenses renewed. Eventually, most if not all U.S. nuclear plants are expected to apply for license renewal.
Nuclear power remains unpopular in many countries but it is far from 'dead'. At the end of 2000, there were 438 nuclear power reactors in operation in 31 countries worldwide, and these accounted for about 17 per cent of the global installed base-load capacity for electricity generation. Although no new plant has been ordered in the U.S. since 1978, there are presently 103 operating plants generating 20 per cent of that country's electricity. The corresponding values are 75 per cent and 25 per cent for France and Japan respectively and several countries have nuclear plants under construction. On the other hand, Germany plans to build no more power reactors and to phase out nuclear power as the present plants are decommissioned.
Energy is perhaps the most important input in the modern economy and improving standards of living and the state of the world economy depend very much on the availability and price of coal and oil. The global energy demand is projected to increase by 50 per cent up to 2030, and to nearly double by mid-century. This is an enormous amount of new energy, the generation of which, by burning fossil fuels, will affect demand and costs, add to atmospheric pollution and contribute to global warming.
Among the non-conventional energy options nuclear is by far the most advanced, but there are opponents who claim that it is just too dangerous. They fear radiation releases, accidents like Chernobyl, nuclear waste disposal, and the diversion of material to nuclear weapons.
Pro-nuclear groups point to the excellent control of radiation emissions nuclear plants actually emit less radiation than coal burning units and to the very good record of safe operations. They insist, for example, that the accident at Three Mile Island was actually proof of the quality of nuclear safety design since although the operators did everything wrong early-on, there was not a single fatality. They assure that the waste storage problem can be solved and emphasise that the waste products of Oklo, a natural reactor in Gabon, have been fixed at the site for two billion years, and so on. Some champion reprocessing of the waste.
Moreover, the designs for the fourth generation of nuclear reactors are much improved to make use of the inherent safety of passive systems, and that most aspects of the generation of nuclear power, including costs are now much better. Attention is also being paid to the possibility of other products especially hydrogen as fuel for the fuel cells that are beginning to appear attractive for transportation. However, the contribution to proliferation is not easily measured: the biggest secret about the atomic bomb was that it works, and this was shared with the world that fateful August morning at Hiroshima. Also, the countries that have developed nuclear weapons have achieved these through special programmes, as the route to weapons-grade material through commercial reactors is probably the most
difficult and costly.
It is starting to appear that nuclear power will be of increasing importance in the world energy picture but, despite the recurring statements that small (100 megawatt or less) reactors can be economically feasible, it is most unlikely there will be power in Jamaica in any foreseeable future.
Professor Gerald C. Lalor, director-general, International Centre for Environmental and Nuclear Sciences (ICENS).
