WORLD-WIDE THE tourist industry is expected to regain pre-September 11 levels by the third or fourth quarter of this year, according to the forecasts by the World Tourism Organisation (WTO).
"Our industry has weathered the most serious crisis in its history and already we see light at the end of the tunnel," WTO Secretary-General Francesco Frangialli said."
Tourism in January and February was significantly stronger than in November and December. We expect a staggered recovery to take place in Europe, Africa, the Western Mediterranean and the Caribbean between July and September," he said. International tourists arrivals in 2001 slumped by 1.3 per cent to 688 million, the only significant decrease since World War II.
Two factors combined to produce this decline: the global economic slowdown, which began at the end of 2000, and the terrorist attacks on the United States.
A crisis committee was created by the WTO three weeks after the terrorist attacks to provide leadership and guidance to the industry during this difficult period. It includes some 21 tourism ministers from the countries most affected by the crisis, as well as 15 private sector leaders from the WTO Business Council, representing tour operators, transport companies and hotels.
Governments have responded to the tourism slowdown in a variety of ways, including subsidies, tax breaks, shifts in marketing strategies and increased advertising. The world's major tour operators say these efforts are beginning to bear the fruit with a rekindling of tourism demand.
LOW POINT
"The tourism industry has now passed the low point of the downswing," said Gnter Ilhau of Germany's Preussag Group. "January and February bookings have been lower than previous years but we see a gradual return of consumer confidence in both leisure and business travel."
Tour operators are optimistic because past experience has shown tourism to be one of the world's most resilient industries. They note that during a crisis travellers usually postpone trips rather than cancel them altogether, so that when the crisis winds down there is often a pent up demand that results in a mini travel boom.
While tourism demand is slowly returning, the crisis has changed the face of the airline industry forever. Overcome by massive cost impacts and sharp decline in demand, several well-known airlines that were already having financial trouble- such as Sabena, Swissair, Air Afrique and Ansett- have gone out of business. In Europe, their place is being taken by new low-fare airlines and regional operators, but in less developed parts of the world air transport remains a big problem for the tourism industry. "Air service is a lifeline to growth for emerging states," said Geoffrey Lipman, special advisor to WTO on trade liberalisation.
SECURITY
"They need help in improving safety and recuperating from the crisis that they cannot afford, which is why pro-development support and foreign investment in air services is needed." Ironically, the crisis seems to have helped underline the importance of tourism to national economies and has speeded up much needed improvements.
Philippines Tourism Secretary Richard Gordon reported that his country has now made tourism a senior cabinet position and increased security to the point that Manila airport was recently chosen by the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) as one of the 10 safest airports in the world.
According to the Mexican Tourism Minister Leticia Navarro, the crisis has also offered unprecedented opportunities to communicate the positive aspects of the tourism industry - such as the ability to eliminate poverty and foster international understanding and peace.
WTO officials said this week that the big asterisk to their optimistic forecast is the danger of any new terrorist attack that affects travel. A second major attack almost anywhere could now create a horrendous hurdle to tourism. Also, tourism officials in various nations are keeping a watchful and worried eye on the escalating fighting in the Middle East.
