THE CONSTITUENCY of Portland Western is bounded by the following: from a point where the Guava River crosses the Portland/St. Thomas parish boundary, thence westerly along the Portland/St. Thomas parish boundary to the St. Andrew/Portland parish boundary. It then continues along the St. Andrew/Portland parish boundary to the St. Mary/Portland parish boundary, northerly along the St. Mary/Portland parish boundary to the seacoast. Then it goes easterly along the Rio Grande to where it meets the Guava River, along the Guava River back to the starting point at the Portland/St. Thomas parish boundary.
Portland Western was among the 32 constituencies fixed in the Constitution granted to Jamaica in 1944. The JLP has an enviable record of support in West Portland, winning eight times - 1944, 1949, 1955, 1959, 1962, 1967 and 1980 - to the PNP's four - 1976, 1989, 1993 and 1997.
In 1976 when Leslie Birch (PNP) defeated Dan Green (JLP) by 569 votes, the JLP was losing West Portland for the first time since 1944 as Leopold Augustus Lynch won the seat seven consecutive times - 1944 to 1972. This feat has been surpassed only by Edward Seaga (JLP), who has so far had eight consecutive victories in Kingston Western - 1962, 1967, 1972, 1976, 1980, 1989, 1993 and 1997, all contested elections.
The dominance of the JLP in Portland Western was broken in 1989 when Errol Ennis (PNP), by polling 6,848 votes, defeated St. Clair Shirley (JLP), who polled 5,977 votes. In 1993, Errol Ennis retained the Portland Western seat for the PNP with an increased majority, as he polled 5,830 votes to the JLP's Holden Hammond's 4,434 - a majority of 1,396.
The current voters' list for Portland Western is 16,574 or 4.9 per cent over the 1997 voters' list. The projected total for the upcoming general election if held after May 31 this year is likely to be approximately 17,000. It seems, therefore, that with no significant increase in the voters' list, this marginal constituency could prove a hard nut to crack as the JLP seeks to take control of a seat it so dominated during the period 1944 to 1980.
While a PNP victory is in no way cast in concrete, the JLP should be fully aware that a Portland Western victory is a must in order to break the 13 years of political drought. In what promises to be a nail-biting finish, the PNP has a slight edge, but only just.
GENERAL ELECTIONS (SUMMARY)
1944-1997
Portland West
1944 E/L 14,550
B/C 9,136
A/B 7,224
R/B 1,912
K.V. Abenana, IND. 1,727
Frederick William Bragg, IND. 295
R.L. Lowe, PNP 1,007
Leopold Augustus Lynch, JLP 2,795
C.L.A. Shirley, IND. 251
Norman V. Thompson, IND. 737
Walter James Thompson, IND. 412
1949 E/L 15,333
B/C 9,973
A/B 9,716
R/B 257
R.L. Lowe, PNP 4,340
Leopold Augustus Lynch, JLP 5,376
1955 E/L 14,870
B/C 11,022
A/B 10,906
R/B 116
E. Fagan, PNP 5,302
Leopold Augustus Lynch, JLP 5,604
1959 E/L 14,033
B/C 10,748
A/B 10,655
R/B 93
Oswald Bradshaw, PNP 5,293
Leopold Augustus Lynch, JLP 5,362
1962 E/L 12,805
B/C 10,363
A/B 10,291
R/B 72
Oswald Bradshaw, PNP 4,793
Leopold Augustus Lynch, JLP 5,447
Franklin Walker, PPP 51
1967 E/L 10,651
B/C 9,514
A/B 9,457
R/B 57
Leopold Augustus Lynch, JLP 5,406
William C. Smatt, PNP 4,051
1972 E/L 11,348
B/C 9,280
A/B 9,225
R/B 55
Leopold Augustus Lynch, JLP 4,947
Clement T. Afflick, PNP 4,249
Michael Dibbs, IND. 29
1976 E/L 13,857
B/C 12,104
A/B 12,015
R/B 89
Leslie Birch, PNP 6,292
Dan Green, JLP 5,723
1980 E/L 13,686
B/C 12,117
A/B 12,082
R/B 35
Evadne Shirley, PNP 5,112
St. Clair Shirley, JLP 6,970
Stan Grant, IND. 17
1983 E/L 13,686
B/C
A/B
R/B
St. Clair Orland Shirley, JLP - Elected
unopposed by acclamation.
1989 E/L 15,782
B/C 12,879
A/B 12,825
R/B 54
Errol F. Ennis, PNP 6,848
JLP 5,977
1993 E/L 14,768
B/C 10,318
A/B 10,264
R/B 54
Errol Ennis, PNP 5,830
Holden Hammond, JLP 4,434
1997 E/L 15,796
B/C 10,439
(66.10%)
A/B 10,411
(99.73%)
R/B 28
(0.27%)
PNP 6,282 (60.30%)
JLP 4,129 (39.70%)
2002 General Election - Projection 2002
2002 E/L 17,000
A/B 10,981 (64.6%)
PNP 6,008 (54.7%)
JLP 4,973 (45.3%)
MAJ. (PNP) 1,035
NOTE:
E/L: Electors on List
B/C: Ballots cast
A/B: Accepted ballots
R/B: Rejected ballots
Anthony Myers is a statistician and political analyst who has done work for the Electoral Office of Jamaica and for the People's National Party.
