Businesses and consu-mers are reporting in-creased confidence in the future, according to Jamaica Conference Board (JCB) surveys.
The surveys show both groups expecting economic growth to increase and also to earn and spend more. The reports were commissioned by the JCB, an affiliate body of the Jamaica Chamber of Commerce.
The surveys showed that more Jamaicans in the survey sample, taken in the first quarter of 2002, had a positive outlook on what would occur this year as against the last quarter of 2001, said Professor Richard Curtin. Professor Curtin, who assists with the survey analyses, heads the Department of Consumer Surveys at the University of Michigan.
Done by Don Anderson's Marketing Research Services Ltd, the surveys have a sample size of 600 on the consumer side, and 100 from the business community. Questions asked of both groups cover issues relating to both the formal and informal economy.
But some things have not changed. The lack of jobs still remains a big concern among consumers, with eight in 10 thinking that jobs remained in short supply at the start of 2002 despite the slight gains in the economy.
They, however, believe their job prospects will change for the better in 2002 due to expected continued gains in business conditions. The proportion of those expecting a rising unemployment rate fell from 60 per cent to 50 per cent.
Professor Curtin said the unemployment is usually the last element of the economy to improve during an economic rebound.
But the survey of consumers showed many Jamaicans (64 per cent) are bracing for price increases and fewer people plan to buy houses (10 per cent) or take vacations (30 per cent).
However, the number planning car purchases rose to 18 per cent, said Professor Curtin.
Speaking at the Terra Nova Hotel in St. Andrew last week, he said that overall, 87 per cent of consumers were either hoping to increase their income or at least did not expect their income to worsen in 2002. About 14 per cent expected their living standards to worsen, down from 26 per cent in 2001.
In addition, the professor said that two-thirds of Jamaican consumers judged current business conditions as average or better than average. Only 34 per cent thought business was bad, a decline from 45 per cent.
Increased confidence
The Business Confidence Index showed that local businesses were more confident about their economic prospects in the first quarter of 2002 than at any time since the initial survey was conducted in the second 2001 quarter.
While several businesses continued to report that they were seeing worse returns than expected on current investments, they appeared to be optimistic about boosting revenue this year.
The first quarter 2002 survey showed twice as many businesses reporting that their current returns on investment were worse than they had earlier anticipated rather than better than expected.
But 59 per cent expected larger profits during 2002, up from 46 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2001 and 40 per cent in the second quarter of 2001.
Results showed that Business Confidence moved from 97.8 points in the last quarter of 2001 to the current 115.3 points while consumer confidence move from 111 to 115.1.
The data also showed that the proportion of firms that had expected the economy to worsen had fallen in the last six months, standing at 30 per cent, down from 53 per cent last quarter and 67 per cent between April and August, 2001.
In addition, 43 per cent of businesses thought it was a good time to make investments to expand. Twenty-five per cent or one in four had said that last quarter.
Between 60 and 62 per cent of businesses expected their finances to improve.
Responding to questions on the findings, Professor Curtin cited a number of factors which had prompted more positive attitudes. He said while there will be growth, this will only be in the single digits so "anyone who is expecting 20 per cent returns will be disappointed."
Professor Curtin said the country's business sectors, especially the hard hit area of tourism, was beginning to rebound from last year's drastic drop in visitor arrivals, following the July 7-10 civil unrest in parts of the Corporate Area and other parishes and the September 11 attacks on the United States.
Businesses are also complaining less about crime and violence compared to 2001. Crime and violence had been a factor which caused a large drop in consumer and business confidence indices, particularly in the second quarter of 2001.
