John Rapley - Foreign FocusI DON'T normally cover the same topic two weeks running. However, last weekend's shock result in the French Presidential election just demands attention.
The neo-fascist Jean-Marie Le Pen edged out the socialist candidate to make it to the second round of voting early next month. Nothing quite like this has happened in the post-war history of France. And with far-right political parties rising elsewhere in Europe, some observers are worrying that the continent is replaying the 1930s. Then, economic and political instability brought fascism to power, ultimately plunging Europe in war.
First the good news. Mr. Le Pen will never become President. Given his advancing age, this will be his last election. And there is no way he can win a majority of the votes, or even come near, in the second round of balloting. He will pick up the support of one other far-right candidate who was struck-off the ballot following a weak first-round showing. That will bring his share of the vote to around 20 per cent. The rest of the voting population will rally around the centre-right candidate and incumbent president, Jacques Chirac, simply because they detest Mr. Le Pen.
But there will still be plenty of bad news behind this result.
First, Mr. Chirac evokes little affection in French voters. Barely one in five opted for him in the first round, giving him the weakest mandate of any President in France's Fifth Republic. Though he will win a resounding victory, it will be safe to say that he will re-take office with many, and possibly most, French voters wishing he were instead leaving.
Activists on the French left say the socialist candidate failed to get through to the second round because the left splintered, with no less than six candidates vying for the left-wing vote. But others point out that even if one adds up all this support, the left won well under half the votes. In other words, they reckon, Mr. Le Pen scored his coup for the simple reason that France lurched rightwards.
Neither explanation appears correct. Neither the moderate right nor moderate left did substantially better than in the last election. Rather, the big winners were the extremists. Both the far right and the far left saw their support rise in this election. Depending on the measure one uses, between 30 and 40 per cent of French voters supported candidates who rejected the system altogether.
In short, the centre is narrowing, the extremes are rising and, in light of the record rate of abstention, many French people are simply turning their back on the system. What appears to unite the extremes of French politics is a wholesale repudiation of neo-liberal globalisation. This might explain the erosion of the centre, pointing to a more volatile politics in the future.
Dealing with it will not be easy, because the new government will probably not enjoy the mandate required for the task. France confronts a paradox: in an election widely seen as a repudiation of the political establishment, the establishment candidate will win a trouncing victory. No doubt, the French will be left with a bad taste in their mouths.
The greater fear just now is that while Mr. Le Pen will go down to defeat on 5 May even his supporters acknowledge this inevitability he will in the process have given the far right the momentum in French politics. It is possible that the shock of this result will galvanise the French left into action, causing rivals to bury their differences in order to forge a united front. But it is just as likely that the new legitimacy won to the neo-fascist cause will carry forward into the June Parliamentary elections.
Much, I suspect, will hinge on the outcome of the World Cup. Mr. Le Pen, who opposes immigration and wants to send France's "foreigners" back whence they came, was last riding high in the polls in the late 1990s. Then along came a football team filled with foreign names and led by an Arab. Victory in 1998, and again in Euro 2000, tarnished the neo-fascist cause and prompted talk of a new France.
Yet again, the political future of France may come to rest on the feet of the likes of Zinedine Zidane.
John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
