ALL AVAILABLE data show that in the upcoming general election the JLP will be victorious in this constituency in a very close contest.
The constituency of St. Ann South-Western is bounded by the following:
the southern boundary of Richmond Pen on the St. Ann-Trelawny parish boundary, then easterly along this parish boundary to the southern boundary of Industry Pen. It then goes along this boundary to the Gibraltar-Watt Town main road, easterly along this main road to its junction with the Brown's Town-Alexandria main road, then easterly along the Brown's Town-Alexandria main road to the southern boundary of Endeavour. From there it goes easterly along this boundary to a bridle track then southerly along this bridle track to a parochial road, along this parochial road and across Mason Ground to where it meets carriage road No. 133, then southerly along this carriage road to the Heartease Road. It then goes along the Heartease road to Parochial Road No. 133, then along this parochial road leading to Welcome, continuing along the parochial road to parochial road No. 140. From there it goes easterly along parochial road No. 140 to its junction with Parochial Road No. 181, southerly along parochial road No. 181 to the John's Vale Forest Reserve boundary, then to the St. Ann-Clarendon parish boundary and northerly along this parish boundary to the starting point.
In 1959 as a result of an advancement in the Constitution, 45 constituencies were provided for,
13 constituencies over the 32 which had been fixed from 1944. South-West St. Ann was among the 13 newly-created constituencies for the July 28, 1959 General Election. The parish of St. Ann got two additional seats bringing the number of seats to four - St. Ann North-Western, St. Ann North-Eastern, St. Ann South-Eastern and St. Ann South- Western.
During the period 1959 to 1997 there have been nine contested parliamentary elections in the constituency of South-Western St. Ann. Gideon W. Aabuthnott-Gallimore won in 1959 and 1962 for the JLP while his son Neville Eden Gallimore won in 1967, 1972, 1976, 1980, 1989 and 1993 for the JLP, with the PNP's Glenville Shaw winning in 1997. The uncontested election of 1983 was won unopposed by Neville Gallimore, representing the JLP.
It is a historical fact that since the creation of the South-West St. Ann constituency in 1959 the PNP has tasted victory only once. It is interesting to note that in 1993, the PNP's Glenville Shaw came within a whisker of wrestling the seat from Gallimore the younger, Gallimore's margin of victory being a mere three votes.
With a high 12.9% increase in the 1997 voters' list over the 1993 list, Glenville Shaw made no mistake in 1997 as he polled 6,363 votes to 5,749 for the veteran politician Neville Gallimore. Albert W. Lion (NDM), polled 500 and Louis Anthony Philips (IND), 40, Shaw having a majority Shaw over Gallimore of 614. So after 38 years of continuous support for the Gallimore family in St. Ann South-Western, the PNP's electoral victory drought finally came to an end in the 1997 General Election.
With the current voters' list showing a mere 5.4% increase over the 1997 list and Neville Gallimore retiring after losing the 1997 contest, the JLP camp must be in a quandary as to the likely outcome of the 2002 election campaign. When one considers that the once formidable Neville Eden Gallimore has been replaced by Ernest A. Smith who failed in three consecutive attempts (1989, 1993, 1997) to wrestle the St. Ann North-Western seat from the PNP, one can honestly conclude that this constituency, once the domain of the JLP, will not easily change representation in the upcoming general election.
On the other hand, the PNP is faced with its own disadvantages:-
1. Three consecutive terms in office
2. Going to the polls to secure an unprecedented fourth term.
3. Seeking to retain a seat which the JLP lost only once in 38 years.
St. Ann South-Western is undoubtedly one of the battle-ground constituencies which the JLP must win to have any chance of sitting on the right hand of the Speaker. All available data give the JLP victory, in a very close contest.
Anthony Myers is a statistician and political analyst who has done work for the Electoral Office of Jamaica and for the People's National Party.
GENERAL ELECTION (PARLIAMENTARY)
- PROJECTIONS 2002
Electors on list 16,994
Accepted Ballots 13,178 (77.5%)
PNP 6,295 (47.8%)
JLP 6,883 (52.2%)
Majority (JLP) 588
GENERAL ELECTIONS (SUMMARY) 1959-1997
NOTE:
E/L: Electors on List
B/C: Ballots Cast
A/B: Accepted Ballots
R/B: Rejected Ballots
St. Ann South Western
1959
E/L 14,316
B/C 8,453
A/B 8,374
R/B 79
Gideon W. Gallimore, JLP 4,487
A.S. Wilmot, PNP 3,887
1962
E/L 10,767
B/C 7,603
A/B 7,545
R/B 58
G.W. Aabuthnott-Gallimore,
JLP 4,224
C.A Codaar, PNP 3,074 Roy A. Wilford, PNP 247
1967
E/L 8,759
B/C 7,003
A/B 6,939
R/B 64
Joseph Broderick, IND 137 Percival A.Broderick,PNP 2,687
Neville Eden Gallimore,
JLP 4,115
1972
E/L 9,021
B/C 7,124
A/B 7,080
R/B 44
Neville Gallimore, JLP 4,234 Jackson C.Wilmot, PNP 2,846
