D.K. Duncan NOW THAT the May 31, 2002 voters list is in place, the People's National Party (PNP) faces one major hurdle before the Prime Minister announces the date of the next general election.
The May list, which contains names of persons who have registered up to March 31, 2002, will be in effect as the official voters list until November 30th this year. Although the system of continuous registration is in place there will be no more additions to the present list before then. Except for the month of December, the present list will be in effect for the remainder of this year.
The 1997 list had a total of 1,182,294 persons eligible to vote - a 74 per cent registration. The May 30, 2002 list has 1,301,379 registered voters. This represents 78 per cent of those over 18 years of age, and therefore old enough to vote. There is a 4 per cent increase in voter registration over those eligible to vote in the 1997 General Election.
TIMING
It is highly unlikely that the Prime Minister, who has promised General Election this year, will announce an election date after November 30, 2000 - the date for a new list. His greatest hurdle is timing. Timing is a function of the reasonable possibility of winning. The most useful indicator of correct timing is an accurate, reliable public opinion poll. The last published public opinion polls in late March did not fulfil the requirements for the PNP. Excluding the uncommitted, the PNP was 12 points (43-55) behind the opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) in the wake of the NetServ and Operation Pride scandals.
TABLES TURNED
The PNP led the polls for 21 consecutive months (March 96 - December 97) prior to the elections of December 18, 1997. This time the tables are reversed. The JLP has been leading consistently since November 2000 to March 2002, some 17 months.
In the nine-month period before the 1997 General Election (April - November) the PNP's lead moved from two points in April to 10 points in August and then eight points in December. A comparison with the JLP showed them leading by eight points in July 2001, six in November and seven points in March 2002.
This is not a scenario within which the Prime Minister can 'fly the gate' - if he has reasonable expectations of winning. As a consequence he would have to bear in mind certain events, which could influence public opinion in his favour.
Some of these events, which are in the public domain, could be looked at as they unfold chronologically.
JUNE: During this month - June 2002 - the IMF team, responsible for the Government's IMF Staff Monitoring Programmes (SMP), should report favourably on the economy. Management of the political opportunities arising from the severe flood damages islandwide is a 'Spanish Machete' as the former Prime Minister Seaga found out in 1988-1989 after Hurricane Gilbert. The World Cup Football games and the New Zealand Cricket Series are convenient distractions.
The Report of the West Kingston Commission of Enquiry should be available to the Prime Minister/Governor General sometime soon. The timing of its publication could be a matter for political manipulation. It is widely expected to be critical of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), the West Kingston Constituency and Edward Seaga in particular. However, how much credibility it will have is anybody's guess.
A 496-page book representing selected speeches of P.J. Patterson (1992-2000) is to be the published in June - as "one celebration of that milestone - P.J. Patterson's unbroken tenure as Prime Minister of Jamaica". This, according to the Ian Randle Publishers 2002 Annual Catalogue.
JULY: The stellar 'feel good' opportunity for the month will be the staging of the World Junior Games scheduled for mid-July. Some of the key operatives of the PNP have been integrally involved in the planning and operationalising of these games. This fact alone could rule out General Elections until after the games are over - barring a dramatic shift of public opinion in favour of the Government.
AUGUST: August 1 heralds the Emancipation Day Celebrations. One of its highlights is the opening of Emancipation Park at the Liguanea lands - symbolic of 'Black Man Time Come.'
If Operation PRIDE and other such land related programmes, the centrepiece of the 'Solid Achievement' leg of the election campaign, gets back on track - the PM could see himself in a political comfort zone from which to 'fly the gate.' This scenario is to be capped by significant increases in the level of celebrations for the 40th year of Independence.
SEPTEMBER: This emotive political tide should carry the PNP into its 64th Annual Party Conference usually scheduled around the date of its founding - September 18. This conference represents P.J. Patterson's 11th such as party president. It provides a launching pad of a campaign for the first Prime Minister to be elected in his own right for three consecutive terms, as well as a record consecutive fourth term for the party.
OCTOBER: Unless the PNP is significantly behind in the polls after all of this, the most opportune time for general election would be late September to early October 2002.
Any date after that runs into the certainty of a strong JLP conference in November. More importantly, it would signal a silent resignation to defeat by the PNP whose only hope would be for its major card to be played.
KEY CARD
That major card - the key card from the PNP's point of view - is the 'Seaga self-destruct' card. If this card does not play itself by then, the PNP would be forced into an ineffective, uninspiring general election in December, 2002 - based on a new voters list, having sat out its entire five years from December 18, 1997.
Former General Secretary and Government Minister in the PNP Administration of the 1970s, Dr. Duncan - a Dental Surgeon, recently established "The D.K. Duncan Political Institute". E-mail: dktruth@hotmail.com
