John Rapley - Foreign FocusBACK IN the days when Mike Tyson could still box, it used to be said that nobody could beat him but himself. Faced with a field of overawed opponents, the only threat to the champ was his own self-destructiveness, which ultimately brought an end to his championship.
The same could be said of Canada's ruling Liberal Party. It remains so far ahead in the polls that the opposition have lost sight of them. In part this is due to a normal feature of federal Canadian politics: thoroughly implanted in most of the demographic groups and regions of the country, the Liberals have a natural support base that far outstrips any rival. Only through effective coalition-building and strong campaigns does the opposition ever succeed in breaking this grip.
Given the current situation, this is far from happening. The opposition in the Canadian Parliament is badly divided. None of the rival conservative factions wants to cede place to the other, but nor does any of them garner sufficient support to challenge Liberal dominance on its own. As has happened before, only when Liberal complacency leads to careless arrogance, breeding disgust in the electorate, is the Liberal strangle-hold on power likely to be broken.
A recent string of corruption scandals seemed to indicate this complacency had set in. But while the news has put the government of Prime Minister Jean Chretien on the defensive, and softened its poll numbers, the party remains ahead in opinion polls. With a solid majority and a fairly new mandate, the Liberals seem to have no reason to worry about their opponents.
Now, however, a new problem has arisen from within. The country's respected and popular Finance Minister, Paul Martin, has been itching to take over the leadership of the country from Jean Chretien. Chretien is 68, and sometimes hints he is ready to leave office. Accordingly, he has encouraged other Ministers to prepare themselves for a leadership contest at some point in the future. However, through effective and by Canadian standards sometimes ruthless organisation, Mr. Martin has pretty well locked up the succession when the time for it comes.
When the time for it comes. That is the problem. Despite occasional hints at his future departure, Mr. Chretien appears to be quite comfortable where he is. His working relationship with Mr. Martin has not been good, ever since he defeated Martin for the Liberal leadership a dozen years back.
Mr. Martin, for his part, is growing impatient. His supporters are pressing for a change of leadership sooner rather than later. Mr. Martin's problem is that he is not a lot younger than Mr. Chretien. Should Mr. Chretien decide to hold on to power through the next election, Mr. Martin's support might begin to wane as people judge his time has passed.
By building his base within the party and the caucus, Mr. Martin seems to be forcing the issue. His opportunity to strike would have come next February, when a review of Mr. Chretien's leadership is scheduled to take place at the Liberal Party convention. However, matters came to a head over the weekend at a Cabinet meeting. Mr. Chretien charged that some members were leaking details of the recent corruption scandals to the press in order to embarrass the government. He demanded loyalty and called for an end to leadership campaigns. He apparently called no names, but nobody present was left in any doubt that Mr. Martin was the target of his ire.
Mr. Martin announced he would spend the weekend pondering his options. Unlikely as he was to abandon his campaign for the leadership, it seemed probable he was on the verge of resigning. Mr. Chretien beat him to the punch. Like everyone else, Mr. Martin heard over the radio that he had been dismissed from the government.
Mr. Martin's outraged supporters are now eager to fight. The question is, who holds the best cards? Mr. Martin's grip on the party appears stronger than Mr. Chretien's, and it seems he can deliver the votes to unseat Mr. Chretien. Still, Mr. Chretien controls the government, with all its patronage powers, and has made clear he will punish disloyalty. In a party that values loyalty highly, breaking ranks will be difficult to do.
Because the two men are so evenly poised, the battle threatens to rip the party open. Finally, Canada's opposition politicians have something to cheer about.
John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
