D.K. Duncan INVITED BY the Electoral Advisory Committee (EAC) to observe the next General Election in Jamaica, the Carter Center made the following observation, among others:
"We are concerned by indications that the upcoming elections may have a low turnout. High voter participation is essential to guarantee acceptance of Jamaica's democratic institutions and institutional frameworks."
They expressed this concern at a press conference following the recent visit of their representatives to Jamaica. It is highly unlikely that this specific concern will be satisfied. A high voter participation, in the Jamaican context, is not on the cards at present.
BELOW AVERAGE
In the first instance the figures for the registration of voters continue to be below the post-independence average. Over the last three General Elections - this figure has moved from 83 per cent in 1989 to 74 per cent in 1993 and 1997. (See Voters registration (1989-2002) Table)
The present registration is approximately 1.3 million, representing 78 per cent of all those old enough to vote, i.e., over 18 years of age or approximately 1.67 million. This is a 4 per cent increase over the 1997 registration. (See Voters registration (1989-2002) Table)
In absolute terms, the number of voters registered for the 2002 General Elections is 119,000 more than those registered for the 1997 General Elections. For the previous period, 1993 to 1997, the increase in registration was approximately 180,000. The process of ongoing registration began after the 1997 General Election.
While some 68,000 voters were added to the 1997 list between then and March 2001, an additional 51,000 were added in the one year between March 31, 2001 and March 31, 2002 making the grand total of 119,000.
These additional voters, as a category, are likely to show a higher percentage turnout in the next elections - mainly because they had to make a special effort to be registered. Those already registered up to December 1997 are retained on the present list and were not required to re-register.
Therefore, it is difficult to anticipate their state of mind. They may or may not have desired to remain on the list. In spite of this, the pattern of low registration persists.
In the second instance all available public opinion polls on party standings indicate a continuing high level of uncommitted voters. This high level had its genesis in the post-1989 period and has sustained itself since. It has moved from 47 per cent in August 1991 to a high of 61 per cent in November 2000, and stood at 45 per cent in the March 2002 polls.
Over the course of the last three General Elections, that same group, the uncommitted, stood at 35 per cent in 1989, moving to 46 per cent in 1993 and 52 per cent in 1997. Since February 1999, this high level of uncommitted has been consistent, moving from 48 per cent to 58 per cent in May 2000, 61 per cent in November 2000, 50 per cent in February 2002.
There has been, and there is still, nothing on the political horizon to indicate that anything dramatic is likely to take place to shake that level of the uncommitted. This is unlike recent elections in Europe (e.g. France and Holland), which demonstrated a high turnout of voters.
In the third instance of those who are registered, the trend towards an increasing level of non-participation on Election Day continues. The turnout of voters as a percentage of those on the list dropped from 77 per cent in 1989 to 67 per cent in 1993 and stayed at 65 per cent in 1997. (See Voters registration (1989-2002) Table). This also is unlikely to change for the 2002 elections.
There were 1.67 million persons over 18 years of age as of December 2001. Assuming the voter turnout follows the trend of the 1993 and 1997 elections as well as recent polls, there would be a turnout of approximately 50 per cent of those old enough to vote. This would also mean a 64 per cent turnout of the 1.3m persons registered to vote.
In the pre-independence years voter turnout as a percentage of those old enough to vote increased incrementally from 50 per cent in 1944 to 60 per cent in 1949 and 72 per cent in 1962.
The post-Independence period saw two flawed years - 1967 and 1972 - when there was abnormally low registration. This came about as a direct result of a cumbersome and restrictive registration which was introduced - and later abandoned.
The two traditional parties between them enjoyed significant support both in registration and voting up until 1989, particularly in the period 1976-1989. (See Voters turnout Table) However since then, there has been this dramatic turn-off - both of persons not registering who are eligible to do so and a significant number of those who had registered deciding not to vote on Election Day.
This trend is likely to sustain itself for the 2002 General Election. One love, one heart.
Former General Secretary and government minister in the PNP administration of the 1970s, Dr. Duncan, a dental surgeon, recently established The D.K. Duncan Political Institute. E-mail: dktruth@hotmail.com
