John Rapley - Foreign FocusIN HIS long-delayed speech on US policy towards the Middle East last week, US President George W. Bush signalled an abrupt change in his government's approach to the region. Mr. Bush, mindful of the pitfalls the region held for previous Presidents, came to office determined to avoid directing any peace process.
Events on the ground soon made that impossible, though. Seeing as the US maintains a complex Middle Eastern alliance, linked at the same time to both Israel and some of her Arab neighbours, she cannot avoid the region when tensions are running as high as they are now. Under pressure from Arab allies to help stem the growing violence, Mr. Bush seemed to reached an understanding with his European partners earlier this spring.
Essentially, they appeared to adopt a division of labour. European governments, which are closer to the head of the Palestinian Authority, Yasser Arafat, would pressure him to implement the reforms seen as necessary to peace. For his part, Mr. Bush would use his influence with the Israeli Prime Minister, Ariel Sharon, to press for an Israeli withdrawal from the Palestinian territories. Officially, Mr. Sharon authorised recent occupations to halt the ongoing wave of suicide-attacks. However, continued expansion of Israeli settlements suggests to many Palestinians that Israel has longer-term designs on these lands.
Rather suddenly last week, then, Mr. Bush announced something of an about-turn. He declared in fairly uncertain terms that until Yasser Arafat was replaced as head of the Palestinian authority, the American government would not involve itself in diplomacy. Coupled with his previous declaration that Israel had a legitimate right to defend herself against terrorism, the announcement was greeted enthusiastically in Tel Aviv, where it was seen as a green light for Mr. Sharon's military moves.
There are two distinct if related issues in play here. One is whether Yasser Arafat should go. Many Palestinians now feel that he has been a poor leader, and should step aside. His administration is corrupt, his security forces abusive, and he is more of a petty despot than a democratic leader. To top it all off, his adherence to a peace process now seen as a failure by a great many Palestinians seems to owe more to his appetite for power than to the dreams of his people. That is why in recent months, prominent Palestinians like Edward Said have called for Mr. Arafat to step aside. Slumping poll ratings within Palestine seem to echo that opinion.
However, anxiety over Palestine's truncated democracy has nothing to do with Israel's desire to isolate and eject Mr. Arafat. Mr. Sharon is an old foe of his. He would prefer an even more compliant partner in any negotiating process. Mr. Sharon won't get that partner, not if he is to be chosen democratically. Whenever Mr. Arafat is isolated like this, his people rally around him. In the context of the American declaration, he is likely to win re-election. In the unlikely event he does not, it will only be because a more radical leader has emerged.
So while the US administration maintains it is not trying to pick and choose leaders, but simply exercising its right to ignore those it judges it cannot deal with, in effect it has joined its might to the Israeli government. Mr. Bush's policy turnaround was apparently motivated by his revulsion with Yasser Arafat when it came to light that Mr. Arafat was still funding suicide-bombers.
AMERICAN AGENTS
However, the intelligence Mr. Bush received had not been obtained by American sources, but was fed to him by none other than Ariel Sharon. Although it is common for American and Israeli intelligence officials to share notes, less regular is the practice of accepting the intelligence without first having it analysed by American agents.
So whether he intends to or not, Mr. Bush has effectively tied his government's policy to Israel's. Although some reports indicate that the US State Department may be hoping to work indirectly with Mr. Arafat through its European partners, officially everyone in the American administration is on board with this decision. And in a context in which anti-Israeli sentiment among Arab peoples is rising, Mr. Bush may be playing into the hands of his country's worst enemies.
John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
