D.K. Duncan THE PEOPLES' National Party (PNP) has cleared its final hurdle. The president of the PNP in his capacity as Prime Minister of Jamaica can now feel relatively comfortable in calling the 2002 General Election.
That last hurdle timing has now been satisfied by the report of a statistical dead heat between the two traditional parties (JLP and PNP) in the June 29/30 Observer/Stone Public Opinion polls.
The minimum time allowed by law between the announcement of a General Election and the Nomination Day for candidates is five days. The shortest period allowed between Nomination Day and Polling Day is 16 days. Election date watchers should, therefore, bear in mind a minimum 21-day period between the announcement of the election and the Election Day itself.
It is hardly likely that the Prime Minister will make any such announcement before August 6, 2002 - Independence Day. However with the polls showing significant improvement for the PNP over this last three months (April - June), he is unlikely to wait for this mood to be dissipated by unforeseen circumstances. This effectively rules out the months of November and December as likely periods for campaigning. In addition, the PNP's presentation of candidates having begun in earnest, a five-month active election campaign period would be undesirable, unacceptable and therefore counter-productive.
The Prime Minister is therefore left with a political comfort zone - a window of opportunity - between late August to mid-October - especially if some analysts are correct about the PNP's aversion to an end of October Election.
The one major challenge left for the PNP president, therefore, is the timing of his party's annual conference. This conference is usually scheduled as close as possible to September 18, which is the date in 1938 when the party was launched. This challenge centres around the use of the conference as a pre-election motivating tool or as a potential victory celebration - the latter being an unlikely risk.
Separately, the performance leg (Solid Achievements) of the Government's campaign still has some goodies left in it. Thousands of Operation Pride service lots are still to be formally handed out. These are not likely to be completed until sometime in September according to recent pronouncements by the Prime Minister and the Minister of Water and Housing.
On the other hand, there are a number of "matters arising" still in the hands of the Auditor-General, which could prove embarrassing, diversionary and crucial if they were to surface during the course of an election campaign.
Finally, the Prime Minister is obviously delaying the Cabinet's pronouncements on the report of the West Kingston Commission Enquiry. This, clearly, is to complete the second leg of the PNP's campaign - the "Demonisation of Seaga."
After all is said and done, P.J. Patterson, the man - like all leaders in the twilight of their political careers - has an eye out for legacy and a place in history.
1. He has a major publication outstanding. A 496-page book representing some selected speeches spanning 1992-2002 has been outstanding since June. According to the Ian Randle Publishers' 2002 Annual Catalogue, this is to be "one celebration of that milestone - P.J. Patterson's unbroken tenure as Prime Minister of Jamaica".
2. Thursday August 1, 2002 heralds the opening of Emancipation Park at the Liguanea lands in Kingston - symbolic of "Black man time come."
3. The party president has also personally announced his intention to go down in history as the Prime Minister who has distributed the most land to the most people. This task is unlikely to be completed before September.
4. Success in the general election would mean a record fourth consecutive term for the PNP and a record third elected consecutive term for P.J. Patterson as Prime Minister.
Combining the demands of history, the search for a legacy and the constraints of electoral pragmatism, the PNP president may opt for his Party's Annual Conference at the end of the second or third week in September. This would allow for an announcement in Parliament at the beginning of the second or third week in September. Three weeks after such an announcement puts the Election Day in the first or second week in October.
All of this could be pre-empted if a Stone Poll - private or public - shows a significant PNP lead. These polls are expected to become more frequent over the next two months.
The recent polling results (June) show that the PNP is now back to its December, 1997 General Election support of 27 per cent while the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has increased its 19 per cent support in 1997 to 28 per cent. When these figures are calculated as a percentage of only those who intend to vote (i.e. leaving out the 43 per cent uncommitted), the JLP still show a 10 per cent increase over their 1997 support, while the PNP shows a 8 per cent decrease when compared to their 1997 support.
In this scenario, 13 constituencies now held by the PNP with margins of victory of less than 8 per cent in the last elections are very likely to be won by the JLP. Along with their present 12 seats, this puts them in a position of winning at least 25 seats.
Based on the same 1997 margins of victory, the poll results leave the PNP with a safe 22 seats with another six leaning towards them - a total of 28 seats.
This leaves a critical seven constituencies. These constituencies all had victory margins for the PNP over the JLP ranging from 10-15 per cent in the 1997 General Election. Importantly, these constituencies also had Third Party support (NDM) ranging from 1 per cent to 8 per cent. These 1997 National Democratic Movement (NDM) voters may already have made up their minds. On the other hand they may constitute an important segment of the 3 per cent of the voters who "won't say" at this time.
The public opinion poll shows that only 57 per cent of these enumerated intend to vote. Therefore there is very little room left in which the parties can manoeuvre. That 3 per cent "won't say" could have a big say.
The PNP may have cleared its final hurdle. However, any number can play.
Former PNP General Secretary and Government Minister in the PNP Administration of the 1970s, Dr. Duncan - a dental surgeon, recently established "The D.K. Duncan Political Institute". E-mail: dktruth@hotmail.com
