By Anthony Myers, ContributorIN THE upcoming general election the results in the constituency of St. Elizabeth South Western will be too close to call.
St. Elizabeth South Western was among the 13 newly-created constituencies in 1959.
Of the nine contested Parliamentary General Elections (1959-1997) the JLP won four times to the PNP's five. The JLP had victories in 1959, 1962, 1967 and 1980 while the PNP had victories in 1972, 1976, 1989, 1993 and 1997. With the exception of 1980 when Derrick B. Sangster (JLP), defeated Donald Buchanan (PNP) by a majority of 3,020, all results from 1959 to 1997 have been extremely close.
In 1959 Charles D. Wright (JLP), defeated E.V. Allen (PNP), by six votes. C.D. Wright 4,398; E.V. Allen 4,392. Charles D. Wright's record of having represented St. Elizabeth South Western for three consecutive terms 1959, 1962 and 1967 was equalled by the incumbent Donald Buchanan in 1997. It is interesting to note that Donald Buchanan's victory in 1997 was his third consecutive over his old rival Derrick Sangster (JLP).
St. Elizabeth South Western is a swing constituency; it moves in tandem with the national pendulum. With an increase of approximately 9 per cent (1,705) in the number of electors on list for the 2002 general election both major parties are confident of victory. Can Derrick Sangster deny his nemesis, Donald Buchanan a four-timer? Only time will tell as this contest will be extremely close too close to call.
Anthony Myers is a statistician and political analyst who has done work for the Electoral Office of Jamaica and for the People's National Party. Next: St. Elizabeth South Eastern.
GENERAL ELECTION (PARLIAMENTARY) - PROJECTION 2002
2002
E/L 20,728
| A/B | 16,530 | (79.7%) |
| PNP | 8,227 | (49.8) JLP |
| 8,303 | (50.2%) |
Majority (JLP) 76
