Dr. D. K. Duncan, Contributor
The National Democratic Movement (NDM), the Jamaica Alliance for National Unity (JANU) and the Republican Party (RPJ) through their alliance, the New Jamaica Alliance, is unlikely to have any electoral impact on the September/October 2002 general election. The other contesting 'third party', the United People's Party (UPP), is likely to share the same fate.
Stephen Vasciannie accurately summed up this situation in his Gleaner column of August 19, 2002. The Professor states: "Not-withstanding dissenting voices to the contrary, the contest is shaping up to be a straight two-horse race, with the two newer parties, the UPP and the NJA, contributing intellect and rationality but not much voting power to the contest."
Recent Stone Polls demonstrate the waning political and electoral fortunes of the NDM as well as the rise and fall of the UPP. Selected public opinion polls dating back to November 2000 show the NDM receiving seven per cent support at the beginning of this period. Table I shows the rapid reduction in the support of the Movement to a crippling one per cent or less from September 2001 to the present a period of some 10 months.
November 2000 is chosen as a base date since it represents the first time since February 1994 that the JLP assumed the lead over the PNP in the public opinion polls. These findings were validated by the results of the March 8, 2001 North East St. Ann by-elections. The JLP has not relinquished that lead, although the gap narrowed significantly in the June 29/30 Stone polls.
Four months prior to the December 1997 general election, the NDM had a 10 per cent support, ending with six per cent in the December polls. However, they received a mere two per cent at the polls. This two per cent translated into 36,700 votes or five per cent of the ballots cast. This five per cent figure, however, is the highest gained by a third party since the granting of Adult Suffrage in 1944.
For the purposes of this analysis - a third party in Jamaica is defined as any political party attempting to share power with the two major political parties, i.e., the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and the People's National Party (PNP).
Historically, in Jamaica, third parties have proven to be non-viable.
Pre-Independence third parties
Between 1943 and 1955: Third parties were formed mainly by big business and big landowners. One of those, The Jamaica Democratic Party (JDP) - was formed in December 1942, (prior to the launch of the JLP on July 8, 1943), to contest the 1944 elections. Six third parties contested those elections receiving five per cent of the votes. The JDP got four out of the five per cent. The five (5) others received one per cent. However, in the same elections, independent candidates received as much as 31 per cent of the votes and won five seats in the House of Representatives.
Later, the Agricultural Industrial Party (AIP) - and the United Party of Jamaica (UPJ) succeeded the JDP in the 1949 general election. The AIP polled one per cent of the votes, while the UPJ polled 0.2 per cent; independent candidates got 13 per cent and two Parliamentary seats.
The Farmers' Party (FP) in the 1955 general election succeeded these parties. The FP polled 3.9 per cent of the votes, while independent candidates received 5 per cent.
Between 1955 and 1962: Third parties were formed mainly by the 'Trade Union Wing' of the PNP - 'The Left'. This followed their purge from the party in 1952. The National Labour Party under Ken Hill contested the 1955 elections but received only 1.2 per cent of the vote. The People's Freedom Movement under Richard Hart received 0.4 per cent of the vote in the same elections.
A 'Socialist Party' contested the 1962 general election. Along with independent candidates and the People's Political Party led by Millard Johnson, they all received 1.4 per cent of the vote.
Post-Independence third parties
In the general election of 1962, the People's Political Party (PPP), led by Millard Johnson, attempted to share power with the two major parties campaigning mainly on the 'race question', drawing inspiration from Marcus Garvey's People's Political Party of 1929.
Although drawing massive crowds in the pre-election period and fielding 16 candidates, the PPP received a mere 0.9 per cent of the votes. It is interesting to note that while Millard Johnson was drawing crowds on the streets of Kingston, the Fathers of the Constitution were locked up in Headquarters House 'making' the Independence Constitution. Johnson's political activities had a profound effect on the makers of the Constitution in the debate as to whether Jamaica should be a multi-party or two-party state.
One of the ways in which the Independence Constitution militates against third parties is by the provision for one leader of the opposition in Parliament. Up to this time, this provision had not appeared in any other Commonwealth Constitution.
In the 1972 elections, one party - the Christian Democratic Party (CDP) - attempted to challenge the might of the PNP and the JLP. It was a very feeble challenge as only one CDP candidate contested the elections. For his efforts, he received 49 votes.
Another third party, the Workers' Party of Jamaica (WPJ) was founded in 1978 with its first and only general secretary, Dr. Trevor Munroe. This party was formed out of a pressure group, the Workers Liberation League (WLL). It did not initially seek elected office. It subsequently fielded two candidates in the 1981 Local Government Elections, receiving 597 votes or 0.1 per cent of the votes.
It fared no better in the 1986 Local Government Elections. It could be argued that this loss in addition to other factors led to its demise. It is the longest lasting third party to date (8 years). It was wound up shortly after these elections.
Rise of the uncommitted
Since the 1989 General Elections, a large percentage of the voting population have remained uncommitted to the two traditionals - the JLP and PNP. Subsequent General Elections results and public opinion poll findings show that the number of uncommitted has been consistently high. It has ranged from 34 per cent in May 1990 to 47 per cent in August 1991 - 58 per cent in November 1994 and 43 per cent in September 1995. The 1993 General Elections - 'The Battle of the Die-hards' - saw 46 per cent of the voters remaining uncommitted.
It was against this background that in 1995 a major dissatisfaction with the political style of the JLP leader, Edward Seaga, resulted in the resignation of 11 of its critical leaders. This action facilitated a new political formation.
The NJA alliance
Public opinion polls in September 1995 showed a significant 32 per cent support for one of those leaders, Bruce Golding, and a Golding-led third party. The NDM was launched in October 1995. Attracting 17 per cent support in December 1995, it dropped to 10 per cent by August 1997. The Movement attracted 5 per cent of the popular vote in the 1997 December General Elections. With the resignation of Golding, its first leader in 2001, its support nosedived to its present negligible level of less than 1 per cent over the last 10 months.
Most of its more successful and high-profile candidates in 1997 like Golding, Wayne Chen, Russell Hammond, Michael Stern, André Foote, Brascoe Lee, Barbara Clarke, Douglas Vaz and Sean Reynolds are either not contesting the next elections for the NDM or are not actively supporting the Movement on the ground. Most still support the core issues, but the electoral organisation is very thin on the ground. Its alliance partner - the RPJ - had its last foray in General Elections was in 1993 when it received a mere 113 vote. It has not competed since.
The Christian-based Al Miller-led JANU, the third member of the Alliance, has presented a direct challenge to the religious community to participate in the elections. If Christians have responded, it has been to the electoral benefit of the Alliance up to this time. They have not appeared on the radar screen of the public opinion polls.
The UPP
The Antonnette Haughton-led UPP has had setbacks in the polls as well as in party personnel. The party was formed in a climate when there was a significant number of disenchanted PNP supporters. The leader's background with the PNP, her public admiration of Michael Manley as well as a passionate part time career as a midday talk show host endeared her to many.
However, these factors have not been enough to sustain much of her initial support. Many seemed to have reconnected with the PNP. The UPP, like the NJA, is in danger of falling off the radar screen.
The number of uncommitted continues to be consistently high. A significant number of Jamaicans, 41 per cent in August 1991, 41 per cent in November 1994 and again 41 per cent in September 1995 expressed support for the idea of a third party. They have not yet found a resting place.
What is irrefutable is that third parties in Jamaica have failed to win state power - whether these have been parties of the right, centre or the left. What we also know is that "third parties attempting to share power within the existing system - the Jamaican brand of Westminsterism - have so far proven to be non-viable."
For the September/October 2002 General Elections, as far as third parties are concerned - the status quo will not change.
Former PNP General Secretary and Government Minister in the PNP administration of the 1970s, Dr. D. K. Duncan, a dental surgeon, recently established The D.K. Duncan Political Institute. E-mail:dktruth@hotmail.com.
