Stephen VasciannieALMOST EVERYONE says the 2002 general election will be a closely fought contest. Audley Shaw has publicly taken a different view, suggesting that the People's National Party (PNP) will be surprised at the swing against the present government. And, presumably, some Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) supporters believe that in the course of the education debate, they have floored the PNP once and for all.
But, if you talk to persons who are not publicly affiliated to either of the two main parties, you are likely to come away with the feeling that the electoral result is still too close to call with certainty. This is curious. The PNP has been in government for 13 years, its stewardship has coincided with the collapse of the banking and financial sectors, there have been serious difficulties in the educational sector, no one speaks of the public health service with pride, unemployment haunts both the young and old, while crime and violence remain at epidemic proportions. And yet, the general election is still tightly poised.
Curious. The situation is also curious if you consider certain specific aspects of the government's stewardship. Off the top of my head, I can recall Karl Blythe's resignation, the controversy concerning the so-called Fat Cat salaries, the Tivoli Gardens bloodbath, ministerial defence of a dearly departed don, frequent demonstrations concerning bad roads and lack of water supplies, and apparent confusion within the management of Jamaican tourism.
I am not necessarily suggesting that members of the government are culpable with respect to each of the foregoing episodes; however, none of the episodes present the State in a positive light, and, by extension, they add nothing to the popularity of the governing party. And yet, the general election will be a tight contest.
ROAD REPAIRS
So, what then are the factors which work to the advantage of the present government, and therefore ensure that it has a real chance of re-election even in the face of some rather obvious problems? In fairness, the government itself may claim some credit for particular policies that have not gone awry. In this category, the objective observer may place the present road construction and repair programme, improvements in the urban public transportation, and the resuscitation of the banking and financial systems.
But, again, even here the cynic will have ample scope for reservations. For instance, the road construction and repair programme is clearly timed for electoral convenience: elections are coming, and just then, bridges are repaired, potholes and craters are filled, and serious road construction commences. It is all too reminiscent of the road work at 2 a.m. which accompanied the Northeast St. Ann by-election, isn't it?
Similarly, though one should congratulate the government for improvements in service brought about in the bus system, one has the lingering feeling that these improvements are not sustainable in the present form because they lack financial support for the long run. And, for the cynic, the banking resuscitation is not a positive factor given that the prior collapse took place at the hands of the same people who have engineered the revival. The doctor who almost kills a patient cannot reasonably expect fulsome praise for eventually keeping the patient alive.
It is difficult, therefore, to build the case for re-electing the government on the strength of its executive stewardship. Is it then an issue of representation? From the outside, one has the sense that PNP constituency representatives are fairly well-organised, and, for sure, they are ready to take on the electoral fight. This is not a small point, for, after thirteen years in power, the possibility of battle fatigue is real; but, to their credit, campaigners such as Roger Clarke, Paul Robertson and Danny Buchanan seem busy on the hustings.
This area of strength for the PNP is consistent with the perception that the party has been in election mode for a long time, and that not much was needed to bring the machine fully into operation. However, operating in election mode is not necessarily synonymous with delivering on electoral promises to one's constituents, and here, the PNP may be faltering significantly. Each demonstration in respect of road conditions, water scarcity and other infrastructural problems is a statement about representation, and, a potential bag of protest votes against the government.
OUTSIDE HELP
By itself then, the PNP is not a natural winner for the forthcoming elections, but many analysts suggest that the party has a lot of help from "outside" forces. In the first place, the closeness of the electoral race cannot be complimentary to the JLP: that party has allowed its internal affairs to be washed far too publicly, and one has the sense that some of its stalwarts are leaving far too much national work on the shoulders of the party leader alone.
Secondly, the media seems, in some cases, to be biased in favour of the present government. It may be that the government benefits from incumbency, and reports on government activity in this period are sometimes difficult to distinguish from party matters. Nevertheless, at least one television station still has probably not struck the right balance among the various political parties. And, among radio stations, PNP FM is now in a class of its own.
In a recent speech at the Mona Campus of the University of the West Indies, Prime Minister Gonsalves of St Vincent and the Grenadines reminded his audience that in small societies, the overcentralisation of power in the hands of the political executive can lead to significant political interference in all walks of life. He quoted Sir Arthur Lewis (from "The Agony of Eight") on this point, implying, for instance, that the civil servant who wants a promotion may carry a subtle political line for the governing party. I do not know if this charge can be brought against the current Jamaican Government moreso than against other governments of the past, but I am distinctly uncomfortable about the National Housing Trust letter from the Prime Minister that was sent out to many of us in the height of the election season.
Finally, the general election is tight because of the majority that the PNP carries to the starting gate. The PNP would need to lose 19 seats for there to be a change in government; this is possible, but there would have to be a significant national swing for this to occur. At the same time, however, the JLP can take some comfort from the Northeast St. Ann by-election: in that case, there was, indeed, a massive swing, one which suggested that the people had made up their minds.
Carl Stone used to say that once the Jamaican people had made up their minds, the results were written in stone. We shall see.
Stephen Vasciannie is a professsor at the University of the West Indies.
