By Dr. D.K. Duncan, Contributor
PNP supporters in their numbers on the campaign trail. (Inset) party president, Prime Minister P.J. Patterson and (right)Leader of the Opposition Edward Seaga is surrounded by supporters on his political campaign.
THE "ELECTION Campaign is officially on". Speaking on Wednesday at The Gleaner's Editors' Forum, the Prime Minister repeated this statement which he had already made public. For this and a number of other reasons, one can assume that by October of this year, the 2002 General Parliamentary Elections will be all over.
THE FORMAL CAMPAIGN
Since a date has not been announced, a distinction has to be made between what is happening now and what is to happen after the announcement. The formal campaign, as distinct from the official campaign, begins with the announcement of Nomination Day and the date for the casting of ballots. The Election Laws call for a minimum period of five clear days between the announcement of Nomination Day and the actual day on which candidates are to be nominated. This is then followed by a minimum period of sixteen days before voting can take place. It is reasonable to assume that the Prime Minister will opt for the minimum time allowed by law. This process the formal campaign will therefore occupy at least 23 days.
Prime Minister P. J. Patterson also told The Gleaner's Editors Forum that he is now in a position to open the Negril to Montego Bay Road Project. He seemed to have made a "solemn pledge" years ago not to call a General Election before this was done.
This opening is to take place today Friday, September 6. The People's National Party's (PNP) President will, sometime after this opening as he told the Editors decide to announce the date of the elections in his own words "when it seems most propitious".
PARTY CONFERENCE
It can be assumed that the Prime Minister will not announce the election date until the PNP presents its Manifesto to the public. If the Party's General Secretary is to be believed, this will be done "sometime during the middle of September". Gleaner Page A3 Wednesday, September 4, 2002).
The only other major challenge is the scheduling of the PNP's Annual Conference. Usually, this event is held as close as possible to the date of the launch of the Party on September 18 some sixty four years ago. The public session of a two-day conference is, at present, scheduled for Sunday, September 22. P. J. Patterson will, therefore, preside over the twelfth consecutive Party Conference while occupying the post of Prime Minister of Jamaica another record.
The clearest opportunity is then presented for dissolution of Parliament in the third week of September making way for a Nomination Day in late September/early October.
NATIONAL HEROES DAY
Whoever presides over a new administration be it P.J. Patterson for a third consecutive term or Edward Seaga with two terms behind him and "in a hurry" for his third should occupy centre stage before National Heroes Day, Monday, October 21, 2002.
A Prime Minister with a new administration will need sometime to prepare for the Awards Ceremonies. This places a possible outside limit for the Election Day in the third week of October. Since the minimum period allowed between announcement and Election Day is twenty-three days we appear, therefore, to be set for the "gates to fly", "the bee to sting" or the crossing of the final hurdle i.e. the announcement sometime during the last two weeks of September.
THE ELECTORAL SYSTEM
In responding to a question put by The Gleaner's Editor re the election date, the Prime Minister said that as of the opening of the North Coast Highway on September, 6 there is nothing left to do. Everything will be in place.
The public is already assured that the Electoral system is in place. A confident Director of Elections and his staff at the Electoral Office of Jamaica (EOJ) supported by the Electoral Advisory Committee (EAC) seem set to conduct Jamaica's most efficient and incident free General Elections in our history. "For the first time at last last" an election centre is in place.
The Security Forces, collaborating with the EOJ at every turn, has challenged itself to the highest professional conduct. Under a hard-working and insightful Commissioner, they seem set to rise to the challenge. The Peace Management Institute (PMI) has had some success. A Political Ombudsman, selected by consensus, is in place. He continues to lead the PMI with distinction.
THE UNOFFICIAL CAMPAIGN
The unofficial election campaign, which began in February when the PNP President called for the "running shoes", is now over. Moving from the symbolism of the Race Track to that of Track and Field, the PNP President recently slid easily into the boxing metaphor Muhammad Ali style. Having "floated like a butterfly", he is now ready to "sting like a bee".
THE HERITAGE PACKAGE
The distribution of certificates of ownership for the Operation PRIDE Lots will have been completed by mid September. All present and future "highways" will have been opened or announced. A beautiful Marina will be officially declared open in Portland on Thursday, September 12, 2002.
A completed on time Emancipation Park received national approval. A literary place in history is assured through the publication of the book "A Jamaican Voice in Caribbean and World Politics". Representing selected speeches by P. J. Patterson 1992 to 2000, Ian Randle Publishers and the Department of Government, University of the West Indies hosted a launch of this book on Tuesday September 3, 2002 at the elegant Mona Visitors' Lodge and Conference Centre, UWI.
The events surrounding the holding of the party conference completes the package.
THE OFFICIAL CAMPAIGN
The OFFICIAL campaign is on its way. The electorate will soon get tired of the GUESSING GAME. A long, intensive campaign could prove counter productive. It may challenge the stamina of Edward Seaga and ravage the finances of the Opposition. On the other hand, the patience of the Jamaican public especially the uncommitted is at some time going to wear thin. The best time electorally for the PNP to have called the elections has gone. An announcement immediately after the "feel good" successes of the Youth Games, Emancipation and Independence Celebrations was the best opportunity. An August 2002 Election Day is no longer possible.
It is clear that P. J. Patterson has decided to stick to his original Game Plan. A "propitious time" as distinct from the "right time" could be the subject of silent reflection when October is over.
THE OPPOSITION
The Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) got an opportunity to retool after the euphoria of late July/early August. It grasped the opportunity to present a manifesto the first of its kind to be seriously critiqued since Norman Manley's "Man with the Plan" in the 1950s. The PNP's hope for Edward Seaga to have a recurrence of "foot in the mouth" disease has not materialised. Time is running out to fly the gate.
Radio programmes like the Breakfast Club, Disclosure and Drive Time Live on Hot 102, Nationwide on Power 106, First Edition on KLAS and Beyond the Headlines on RJR have given a kind of public exposure to candidates never before witnessed by a Jamaican public in such a sustained way. All three TV Stations TVJ, Love TV and CVM TV have risen to the challenge in their own way. Some Cable Channels have also chipped in. National debates are to be televised as well as to be heard on radio. The quality and quantity of candidate and political party exposure inclusive of the third parties is unprecedented. The print media The Observer and especially The Gleaner with its Jamaica Decides series have both complemented and supplemented this healthy phenomenon.
It is time to move from the official campaign to the formal campaign. September will have different memories for different groups and individuals. While it may even be a September to remember, by October it should be all over.
One love, One heart.
Former PNP General Secretary and Government Minister in the PNP administration of the 1970s, Dr. Duncan, a dental surgeon recently established the D.K. Duncan Political Institute. Email: dktruth@hotmail.com
