By Andrew Green, Staff Reporter
Shortly after 9 a.m. September 11, 2001, a second plane, United Airlines flight 175, is seen approaching the south tower of the World Trade Centre. Within the hour, the FAA stopped all takeoffs and landings at US airports. - Reuters
RECOVERY IN tourism now looks set to be weaker and more protracted than had been hoped.
Views expressed in the local industry that there might be a tourism recovery this year have now been dashed. Industry insiders say arrival numbers are improving but this is only because of heavy price discounting.
"We have not recovered," said Horace Peterkin, Jamaica Hotel and Tourist Association vice president. "The outlook right now is not good."
Data from the Jamaica Tourist Board show a gradual reduction in the fall in visitor arrivals. Stop over visitor arrivals fell 15 per cent in the September to December period last year. In the following January to April period, the decline was 13 per cent over the previous January to April. In May and June the decline was 5 per cent.
Cruise passenger arrivals show a similar pattern.
Immediately after the attacks civilian air traffic over the United States was halted. A study by Oxford Economic Forecasting the day after the attacks warned of possible 'longer term' impacts on travel patterns with Americans less likely to travel overseas.
But some local hoteliers had hoped that potential US tourists would view the Caribbean as a safe area in which to travel.
The impact of September 11 is shown by the fact that Air Jamaica will not be flying from the United States today, Mr. Peterkin said. This is because people are afraid of another terror attack on the anniversary.
The guest count at Sandals resorts is down about 15 per cent, Mr. Peterkin said. The Sandals Montego Bay general manager said the big hotel chain has had to rationalise its operations, with some properties closed for refurbishing.
"I don't see the light at the end of the tunnel," said Kenrick Davis, president of the Negril Chamber of Commerce. He said about 40 per cent of Americans are saying that they will not fly on an aircraft.
To encourage tourists to visit the island, there has had to be heavy discounting, Mr. Davis said. "When a man says he has a full house it doesn't mean anything."
All across the industry operators have had to discount prices heavily he said. This is "so you can have some bodies in your properties to get the cash flow."
Discounting now is possibly heavier than before, Mr. Peterkin said. Some hoteliers are getting desperate.
The problem is that discounting cuts revenues but does not cut expenses, Mr. Davis said. The discounting is gradually weakening the finances of many properties.
The biggest blow has been to the european plan hotels, Mr. Davis said. But the impact has been felt in all sector of the industry.
Mr. Peterkin said the heaviest impact was likely to be felt by the medium sized properties which did not have the flexibility of small properties or the financial strength of the big chains.
One critical problem is that the industry is faced with a crisis, but Jamaica Tourist Board is now embroiled in internal problems, Mr. Peterkin said. This is especially acute because of the decimation of the marketing and promotions arm in New York, the most important office in Jamaica's most important
market.
Externally, there are concerns about the possibility of a war with Iraq, as well as an increase in all prices, which will have a negative impact on travel, Mr. Peterkin said.
"It looks like it is going to be very tough," Mr. Peterkin said. "But we can do better than we are doing now."
