THE CARIBBEAN is going to need all the help it can get in the tourist sector. Since the events of September 11, the region has seen a slump in visitors simply because it is next door to the US.
A report indicated that it could lose 365,000 jobs in the sector over the 2001-2002 season, with a 13.5 per cent drop in arrivals and revenues.
Dominican Republic will be the hardest hit, losing an estimated US$883.2 million and 192,000 jobs, it added. Puerto Rico will lose about US$589 million. Jamaica will lose US$300 million and the Bahamas, US$282.5 million.
Yesawick Pepperdine & Bros (YP&B), a leading American marketing service specialising in servicing the travel industry, also noted a decline in Barbados arrivals by more than 12 per cent between January and April.
Cruise ships arrivals and stay-over visitors declined by 33.6 per cent and 22.5 per cent respectively. Business/leisure travellers displayed roughly the same degree of anxiety, with 18 per cent indicating they would not travel.
The Caribbean tourism section is facing a crisis. In 2002, the region will register its second consecutive annual decline in stay-over arrivals. 9/11 sped up the trend already started by increased competition from new destinations, inadequate investment and slowing global economy.
Increased security, custom delays and higher insurance costs pushed up the cost of doing business internationally. Capital investments for developing countries are declining sharply as the financial market investments "flee to quality" as a result of risk-aversion.
Although a number of travel and tourism companies have reported a decrease in demand of 30 per cent and more following the terrorist attacks, the long term outlook for travel and tourism demand is expected to slowly brighten as consumer confidence about safety and security recovers.
Annualised over the 12 months, decrease is currently expected to total 10-20 per cent in USA and less in the rest of the world.
Global impact will be on regional and world employment and Gross Domestic Product. A 10 per cent decrease in demand will reduce United Kingdom GDP by 1.9 per cent and loss of 190,000 jobs; European Union by 1.2 million jobs and in the US, a decrease in GDP by 1.8 per cent and 1.1 million jobs.
A decline of 0.8 per cent in the regional economy has been predicted for the Caribbean region for 2002 according to an ECLAC Outlook Document.
Without dependable market access and channels of distribution, Caribbean air transportation still poses the single greatest obstacle to successful tourism development.
The US airline industry is still flying in severe turbulence. Midway Airlines, Vanguard and US Air have filed bankruptcy petitions.
Even with average ticket prices down about 10 per cent, passenger traffic has stayed roughly nine per cent below 2001 levels since the beginning of the year.
The just released IATA's World Air Transport Statistics confirmed 2001 as the worst year in the history of air transport.
The combination of reduced traffic, falling yields and rising unit costs, with capacity only marginally reduced produced a net loss of US$12 billion on international scheduled services.
Airlines will re-tool their inefficient hub operators, trim the size of their fleet and eliminate more jobs.
However, it is not all doom and gloom. In 2003, a 7.1 per cent growth is predicted.
The Caribbean should view the experience as an opportunity to clean up its problems.
We have some serious issues that we have to address internally. Crime and tourism do not go hand-in-hand and we have to use the opportunity now to do some serious house cleaning.
Perhaps our airlines should take a cue and realise the only way to go forward is together. For example, the aftermath of September 11 resulted in two of Jamaica's archrivals linking up to boost the struggling tourism industry.
Jamaica usually takes 60 per cent of its bookings from US visitors. With a decline in that market, Sandals founder, Gordon 'Butch' Stewart and SuperClub's John Issa, set aside three years of rivalry and jointly targeted UK travellers.
To forge a partnership may be a good cure for Air Jamaica, BWIA and other small regional airlines so that they can survive.
Luckily, this is a resilient industry and it will rebound.
2003 will be the year of recovery and we will reach the level of September 10, 2001 in February 2004.
It is anticipated that this sector will grow a healthy 4.2 per cent annual average after 2003.
American's disaster has severely hit international/domestic travel with 98 per cent of Americans are now travelling within USA. The Caribbean, considered long-haul destination, has been seriously affected.
First-time travellers will travel domestically. Americans being addicted travellers, will not travel to away destinations.
Airlines continue to extend their winter sales on-line, booking of air travel continues to rise. But advanced booking is declining. Last-minute travel sites will see a huge increase in business.
Though the terrorist attacks pushed tourist numbers down for the first time in two decades, the impact was not as negative as many had feared.
Long-term trends - a rise in global wealth, improving transport technology, liberalisation of international airspace, cheaper flights and use of the Internet as a travel tool - are expected to encourage more travellers.
Taken from the Trinidad Guardian website.
