By Anthony Myers, Contributor
Phyllis Mitchell and Abe Dabdoub
IT WILL be a close contest in St. Catherine North Eastern but the pendulum points to a victory for the JLP.
St. Catherine North Eastern was among the 32 constituencies fixed in the new Constitution granted to Jamaica in 1944.
Of the 10 contested parliamentary general elections 1944-1997, the JLP won six times to the PNP's four. The PNP victories in 1949, 1955, 1993 and 1997 were not impressive when compared to the JLP's in 1944, 1959, 1962, 1976, 1980 and 1989.
In 1949, Donald B.H. Nation polled 5,507 votes (44.6% of A/B) defeating his JLP opponent I.S. Bennett by 2,357. The other three Independents - Samuel A. Black, Melbourne B. Cox and Isiah Crossley - polled 1,662, 1,016 and 1,004 respectively.
In 1955, Melbourne B. Cox ran on the PNP ticket and defeated J.P Gyles (FP), Hector Sage (JLP) along with Independent Isiah Crossley.
Melbourne Cox's majority over his nearest rival J.P. Gyles was 2,988. Like Donald Nation, Melbourne Cox who polled 7,018 votes (48.5% of A/B) did not get an absolute majority. Phyllis Mitchell's victory over Anthony Johnson in 1993 was extremely marginal - 160.
St. Catherine North Eastern is a traditional JLP stronghold; the PNP's victory in 1997 was a remarkable achievement. So close was the result (PNP - 4,750 - JLP 4,713 - majority of 37) that the losing candidate in an election petition had the results overturned in the courts, four years later. The judgment which was handed down in the latter half of 2001 gave the JLP candidate victory by 23 votes.
Having lost North East St. Catherine in the courts Phyllis Mitchell will be coming to regain control in the upcoming general election.
In what now appears to be a marginal JLP constituency, it won't be easy to defeat the incumbent, Abe Dabdoub.
In yet another close contest, the power pendulum points to a JLP victory.
Anthony Myers is a statistician and political analyst who has done work for the Electoral Office of Jamaica and for the People's National Party.
General Election (Parliamentary)
Projection 2002
2002
E/L 15,130
A/B 10,311 (68.2%)
PNP 4,884 (47.4%)
JLP 5,427 (52.6%)
Majority (JLP) 543
