THE GOVERNING People's National Party is on the verge of clinching an historic fourth consecutive term in office, Gleaner political analyst Tony Myers predicts.
When the polls close at 5 p.m. on Wednesday, October 16 and the ballots are tallied, the PNP is expected to scoop 42 seats while the opposition Jamaica Labour Party will pick up 18, says Mr. Myers, a political statistician, who has done work for the PNP and the Electoral Office of Jamaica. The PNP controlled 48 seats in the last Parliament and the JLP, 12.
Both the United People's Party and the National Democratic Movement-New Jamaica Alliance are expected to go away empty-handed, he said.
A win for the government would catapult Prime Minister P.J. Patterson into Jamaica's history books, making him the first Prime Minister elected for three consecutive terms.
Mr. Patterson became Prime Minister in 1992 after the late Michael Manley stepped down because of ill health. Mr. Patterson emerged leader of the PNP and Prime Minister after he fought off a challenge from Portia Simpson Miller, now Minister of Tourism. He later went on to win the 1993 and 1997 general elections.
According to Mr. Myers, who correctly predicted the 1997 election, the PNP is expected to wrap up 31 of the 60 parliamentary seats shortly after the polls close, with the JLP controlling 10.
There are 12 marginal seats, which will be split evenly between both parties, says Mr. Myers. The remaining seven seats are categorised as "borderline"- five of which, he says, will go to the PNP and two to the JLP.
According to him, the ruling party is expected to complete a clean sweep in the south western belt of St. Andrew regaining control of St. Andrew West Central, which Andrew Holness won for the JLP in 1997 by a razor-thin margin.
Mr. Holness goes up against music promoter Patrick Roberts of the PNP, who is said to be very popular in the area.
The JLP, however, is likely to tighten its control of the northern belt by capturing the West Rural St. Andrew constituency while retaining its grip on St. Andrew North Western, St. Andrew North Central, and St. Andrew North Eastern.
In a keen tussle for the St. Andrew Eastern constituency, the PNP's Colin Campbell is expected to beat newcomer Dr. Aubyn Bartlett of the JLP, to be re-elected as MP for the area, which he won by a nose in 1997, Mr Myers says.
The JLP's Karl Samuda, who holds pride of place in the political hall of fame, is likely to continue his unbeaten run in St. Andrew North Central where he is expected to fend off a challenge from the PNP's Barbara Clarke. New kid on the block Andrew Gallimore is expected to win St. Andrew West Rural for the JLP, continuing the Gallimore tradition of winning elections.
The PNP is predicted by Mr. Myers to retain control of the parishes of Portland, St. Mary, St. Ann, Hanover, Westmoreland, St. Elizabeth, Manchester and St. Catherine.
Political veterans Pearnel Charles and Dr. Kenneth Baugh, the JLP's general secretary, are both expected to return to Gordon House representing Clarendon North Central and St. Catherine West Central respectively.
Opposition Leader Edward Seaga is also expected to secure his 9th consecutive victory in contested parliamentary general elections starting in 1962. This is a feat, unequalled anywhere in the Caribbean.
Mr. Myers says his polling has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.
