THE OPPOSITION Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has slashed the lead of the governing People's National Party (PNP) just ahead of tomorrow's General Election, a Gleaner-Don Anderson poll has found.
Some 782 persons in 35 communities were interviewed for the latest poll, which was conducted over the period October 11 to 13.
With a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 per cent, the poll shows the JLP gaining marginally to stand at 36.4 per cent compared to the PNP, which slipped slightly to rest at 40.6 per cent. This means the governing party now has a lead of 4.2 per cent, down from a seven percentage point lead that was reflected in the previous poll, published on Sunday.
Sunday's poll, which was conducted over the period October 7 to 10, showed the PNP stretching its lead but made the point that there are 19 constituencies still considered battleground seats.
"The decision to go back into the field on the weekend was made because it was recognised that the party support in these 19 constituencies was so very close that notable shifts in respective popular support between October 10 and 15 in these areas could very well influence the outcome of the elections," Mr. Anderson said.
Constant changes in the attitudes of voters in recent times have led to a see-saw game being played out in the polls. Against the background of that volatility, many political watchers have been cautious in calling the election for either of the two main political parties.
According to Mr. Anderson, the gain in support for the JLP is likely to impact on the projected seat count because of the closeness in support in the borderline constituencies.
"Indeed, so dynamic is the situation that a 2.8 per cent shift to the JLP could move the seat count projection to a 34-26 win for the PNP," Mr. Anderson added.
In the previous poll, Mr. Anderson suggested that the PNP would sweep 40 seats and the JLP, the remaining 20.
He explained in the latest poll, however, that these shifts in support for both parties could again change marginally between Sunday afternoon and Tuesday evening.
Despite the shifts that have taken place between Friday and Sunday, Mr. Anderson said the advantage still rests with the PNP and the party is likely to secure an historic fourth consecutive term in office albeit with a reduced majority. The PNP had 48 seats compared to the JLP's 12 seats during the last Parliament.
At the same time, the poll shows that voter turnout is expected to be 77 per cent. According to Mr. Anderson, a five per cent or more reduction in voter turnout at the polls could significantly affect the outcome of the election. In that case, much could depend on which party is better organised on Election Day, Mr. Anderson said.
The 19 borderline seats identified by Mr. Anderson and his team from Market Research Services Ltd. are: St. Andrew South East; St. Andrew West Central; St. Andrew Eastern; St. Elizabeth South West; St. Elizabeth South East; St. James North West; St. James West Central; Hanover East; St. Thomas East; St. Thomas West; St. Catherine North East; St. Ann North East; St. Ann South West; St. Ann North West; St. Mary South East; Clarendon North Central; Clarendon South East; Trelawny Southern; and Westmoreland Western.
