D.K. Duncan APPROXIMATELY 58 per cent of those persons registered to vote, or close to 750,000 persons who had their names on the list, turned out to vote last Wednesday. The three published pollsters had predicted a much higher turnout of voters on Election Day.
The People's National Party's (PNP) pollster, Bill Johnson, who was published in the Observer of Tuesday, October 15, 2002 had a finding of 74 per cent of the registered voters expressing a party preference and were therefore likely to vote on Election Day. This turned out to be some 16 points off the mark.
The Gleaner's Don Anderson in his published findings of Sunday, October 13, and Tuesday October 15 projected a 77 per cent turnout - some 19 points off the mark.
The last Observer Stone Poll of October 14 projected a turnout of 70-74 per cent - some 12 to 16 percentage points off the mark.
Using the Stone findings over the last 25 years and the voting trends in the three recent General Elections I projected in September, a turnout of 62 per cent (see Gleaner article, Tuesday, September 17, 2002 p.A4).
Before this, on Tuesday, June 11, 2002 in an article for The Gleaner (p. B6) entitled "Low Voter turnout predicted,' I suggested a maximum turnout of 64 per cent. However, using a 12 per cent predictor arrived at by studying the Stone trends, on October 8, 2002 I predicted "that the voter turnout should be closer to 60 per cent or about 780,000 voters" (see Gleaner article, Tuesday - October 8, 2002 p.A3). This was eight days before the Election Day. The actual turnout based on the preliminary returns from the 60 constituencies was approximately 58 per cent of those registered, or close to 750,000 voters.
THE UNCOMMITTED
These figures are important because they demonstrated that the close to 750,000 voter turnout represents only 47 per cent of all those persons who are 18 years old and over. This also means that approximately 550,000 persons who were on the list did not vote. When this number is added to the 300,000 who did not bother to have their names on the list - the staggering total of 850,000 (550,000 plus 300,000) represents a total uncommitted voter population of 53 per cent. The 750,000 turnout on Election Day, plus this 850,000 adds up to the approximately 1.6 million persons who are 18 years and over, and therefore eligible to be on the voters list. If the final count is close to the preliminary count, this 53 per cent will be the largest block of non-voters in a General Election since Independence - indeed since the introduction of Universal Adult Suffrage in 1944 (see figures in Gleaner article, Tuesday - February 19, 2002 p.A4).
ELECTION RESULTS AND THE POLLSTERS
When only those persons who were registered to vote are taken into account (i.e. 1.3 million) the General Election results are as follows:- PNP 30 per cent, JLP 27 per cent and Uncommitted 43 per cent. Third Parties received 0.3 per cent, or approximately 4,000 votes.
Table 1 shows the comparative findings of the three published pollsters as well as the General Election results.These figures include the uncommitted.
All three pollsters under-estimated the level of the uncommitted voters on Election Day.In the case of the Stone Polls this has been so since the Elections of 1989 when the phenomenon of the high numbers of consistent Uncommitted voters surfaced.This phenomenon was first recorded by Carl Stone in a privately commissioned poll in August 1991.
When the figures for the Uncommitted are excluded from the last findings of the polls which were conducted just before the Elections; Table 2 demonstrates the differences.
All three Pollsters returned to the field sometime between October 11 and October 14, as the nation waited with baited breath for the findings to be published, especially the Stone Poll.
It appeared that there were either anomalies, inconsistencies, dynamism, or volatility in previous polls.The Gleaner's Anderson came closest to the actual Election Day voting, and therefore could, with justification, be said to be "spot-on."Respect is due.
Despite the pleadings of the Observer in its edition of Sunday - October 20, 2002, Stone was not "spot-on".For the first time in the history of Stone Polling for General Elections since 1976 their last findings, was just outside of the margin of error.Johnson, for the PNP, was way off base.
POPULAR VOTE AND SEAT COUNT
The October 2002 General Election as far as the popular vote and seat count are concerned is the closest since 1967.The difference in the preliminary count between the two major parties is in the region of 30,000 to 40,000 votes.This figure has been approximately 100,000 or over since the 1976 General Election.The 2002 preliminary count shows the PNP with approximately 392,000 votes; the JLP with 353,000 votes; and Third Parties with 4,000 votes.A photo-finish was definitely on the horizon.At this time it seems to be: PNP 34 seats, and JLP 26.
My own published projections on Tuesday - October 16, 2002, using the predictor of a 10 per cent increase in JLP support showed an outcome of 35 seats for the PNP, and 25 for the JLP. The actual increase in JLP support in the General Election is in the region of nine per cent.
We will analyse these, as well as other published predictions after the final count has been completed.
SWEARING IN
The Prime Minister, who is to be sworn in tomorrow has won a record third consecutive term in his own right.He is to be congratulated on his and his party's record-breaking performance of a fourth consecutive term. Respect is again due. The PNP's president has bought some time to name his Cabinet - for the same reason that Mr. Seaga had not fully conceded - incomplete and uncertain returns.
The PNP's party president may well want to consider the role of the 53 per cent uncommitted in the process of governance.
When all persons 18 years old and over, and therefore old enough to vote (1.6 million), are taken into account the national picture against the background of the General Election results shows the PNP with 25 per cent, the JLP with 22 per cent, and the staggering figure of 53 per cent uncommitted.Third Parties managed only 0.3 per cent.
In consideration of this high level of non-participation the Prime Minister may advise himself to put the issue of fundamental constitutional change at the top of the agenda.He may want to kick-start the public education programme leading to the indicative referendum which was promised several years ago.
It is time for a People's Constitution.This can be arrived at through genuine participation buttressed by a better understanding of the reasons for the continuing negative features of our political culture - the main one being political tribalism.
It may be time, once again, for a new beginning.
One Love, One Heart.
Former PNP General Secretary and Government Minister in the PNP administration of the 1970s, Dr. Duncan a dental surgeon, recently established The D.K. Duncan Political Institute. E-mail: dktruth@hotmail.com.
