John Rapley - Foreign FocusWHEN THE charismatic leader of Quebec's ruling separatist party, the Parti Quebecois (PQ), resigned early last year, some observers said it was a death blow to Quebec's hopes for independence from Canada. The momentum towards separation had slowed considerably since the separatists' narrow defeat in a 1995 referendum on independence. Thus, the departure of Lucien Bouchard from their ranks seemed to portend troubles for the movement.
Subsequent events appear to have confirmed the waning of the separatist dream. In particular, the meteoric rise of a young political party, the Action Democratique du Quebec (ADQ), suggests that Quebec's political landscape has changed dramatically.
This is because the ADQ calls for a major break with the political history of Canada's French-majority province. For starters, it would like to remove the issue of separation from Quebec's agenda, saying the province has more pressing concerns. Just as profoundly, in a province which has arguably developed North America's most generous welfare
state, it is calling for sweeping changes in tax laws and a rollback of the state. The ADQ's call for a flat tax, cuts in education spending and a private health-care system could easily make the party the envy of conservative Republicans in the US.
And it is soaring in the polls. Both the PQ and the opposition Liberal Party have seen their support in public opinion surveys drop since the start of the year, as voters indicate their preference for the ADQ.
Admittedly, some of this backing will prove ephemeral. Most who express support for the ADQ, which emerged from a split in the Liberal Party a decade ago, also express ignorance of its platform. Nevertheless, if the ADQ begins heading back towards earth, there are demographic reasons that suggest it is here to stay.
It would appear that the ADQ which, since it emerged from the Liberal youth movement, has a young leadership draws its support from among Quebec's baby-boom generation. And some recent research from the US can offer insights here. With the population ageing in Western countries, much is made of the "grey lobby" and the ability of pensioners to defend their interests. Yet in most countries, pension programmes have been pared back and the taxes used to support them have been cut. In fact, the last 20 years have seen a shift away from 'pay-as-you-go' pension systems, whereby those in work pay for the pensions of those who are retired, and towards individual retirement accounts. The baby-boomers are leading the tax revolt.
Thus, the move towards a more pragmatic politics, less concerned with grand schemes like independence, more with the defence of individual well-being, seems well established in Quebec. Added to this is the fact that the hard core of support for Quebec independence is constantly dwindling. Supporters of outright independence are drawn from among those Quebecois who can trace their ancestry to the original French settlers. But this is a contracting base. To supplement it, the provincial government has relied upon immigration. And immigrants to Quebec tend to favour, at best, autonomy within the Canadian federation, at worst the status quo. The possibilities of outright independence seem therefore to have entered terminal decline.
So, it seems symptomatic of the new mood in Quebec's politics that independence, on the agenda since the rise of the separatists some three decades ago, may finally be sliding back off. At the time of the last referendum, I said the vote would be Quebec's last stab at sovereignty.
That occasion has passed, and since then we have seen further declines in support for independence.
Lucien Bouchard apparently foresaw this when he decided to leave provincial politics. It all appears to vindicate the decision of the federal Liberal party, which governs the country, when it decided to play hard-ball with the separatists. In declaring, two years ago, that it would never negotiate sovereignty with a Quebec government that had a
mandate for anything less than independence, it drove a wedge through the ranks of the separatists. Hardliners, who favour secession but enjoy limited support, split from the moderates, who wanted to soft-sell independence with vague promises of a union with Canada.
The independence movement has been floundering since, and the ADQ has stepped in to exploit its woes.
John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
