By Lavern Clarke, Staff Reporter 
Kingsley Thomas, head of the Development Bank of Jamaica, predicts that "buses will dominate" as the preferred mode of transportation. Right: Idle railway tracks on Pechon Street, downtown Kingston. - File
JAMAICA is yet to report tangible progress on the restart of its rail service. Nevertheless, there is the assumption that the country will get the trains rolling again. The crafters of the Highway 2000 project have agreed to compensate the concessionaire TransJamaican Highway, once it can prove loss of toll revenue as a result of the resumption of an effective train service.
But, according to Kingsley Thomas, the chances of a payout are slim to non-existent, pinning his conclusions on assumptions about commuter behaviour and Jamaica's ability to afford a modern rail service.
Mr. Thomas, who heads the Development Bank of Jamaica (DBJ), the state agency that gave life to the highway plans, told the Financial Gleaner that TransJamaican can claim compensation only if the rail infrastructure is developed into a truly high-speed train service.
"If that happens, then there will be compensation, but TransJamaican must prove loss of business," said the DBJ head, who also chairs its spin-off company, the National Road Operating and Constructing Company, set up to oversee the 270-kilometre highway development.
"The current improvement (to the rails) is no problem," he said.
Stephen Wedderburn, director of projects and infrastructure at the National Investment Bank of Jamaica, confirmed Wednesday that the plan for the railway is to bring it back to the level it was 10 years ago, when all but the bauxite trains stopped running.
"Kingsley is right, the existing track infrastructure will remain," said Wedderburn.
NIBJ is negotiating with Railtech Jamaica, an Indian/Canadian group, to resume rail transportation of passenger and freight, but in July the parties were still trying to iron out a number of issues, including long-term rehabilitation of the permanent railway infrastructure, insurance, transfer of shares, the concession fee and lease and access fees.
TransJamaican's managing director, Pascal Radde, said his company will be factoring the rail service's likely impact into their pricing structures.
NOT IN OUR LIFETIME
Mr. Thomas estimates that it would take US$2.5 billion of financing to build a truly state-of-the-art railway.
"I don't see it happening in our lifetime," he said. The figure he quoted is triple the total US$850 million estimated to build the toll highway, which is meant to link major urban centres across the island to the capital Kingston, cutting travel time between them.
The NROCC chairman was almost dismissive of the rail service offering any true competition to the toll highway, based on the 'inconvenience' factor for the larger portion of the labour force which works up town.
"The rail goes downtown, and that would mean tri-modal movement," he told the Financial Gleaner. "People would be too inconvenienced."
Labour Force statistics to April 2001, the latest available from STATIN, shows 42,600 employed in Kingston, significantly is less than the 229,800 that work in St. Andrew - a 1:5 ratio.
Based on the dispersal, Mr. Thomas predicts that "buses will dominate" as the preferred mode of transportation.
TransJamaican has a 35-year concession to operate the highway under a toll regime. The system is a first for Jamaica so the concessionaire has no antecedents to judge whether motorists shall be willing to pay the road fee, or opt for the alternate routes that must be provided.
A DBJ-commissioned study done in June says 72 per cent are in favour of the toll, but those results were generated from the responses of only those persons who knew of the proposed tolling system, and were therefore skewed.
Another survey in October by the Stone team, also done for DBJ, showed that people liked the highway for its anticipated improvement to the road network and other factors but they also lumped the toll among the things they disliked about the project.
TransJamaican can charge motorists no more than US$0.07 per kilometre to use the highway, and has until next year to determine what the exact charge will be. Tolling begins in June 2003 when dualisation of the 14-km Old Harbour Bypass is scheduled for completion.
