Anthony 'Tony' Myers, Statistician/Political AnalystNOW THAT the dust has settled, one of the fairest and closest parliamentary general elections in post-Independent Jamaica is now history.
The final results are in, and the incumbent PNP won 34 seats to the JLP's 26. Other parties/Independent candidates all lost their deposits.
In securing a fourth consecutive term, the PNP polled 401,763 votes (52%), to the JLP's 366,784 (47.5%); other parties/Independents, 4,220 (0.5%); rejected ballots 7,416. Of the 780,183 (60%) ballots cast; 772,767 were accepted.
It is interesting to note that the JLP won eight of the 15 seats in Kingston and St. Andrew. It was a clean sweep for the JLP in the North Eastern belt - West Rural, North Western, North Eastern, North Central, Eastern and East Rural. The PNP performed best in the South Eastern and South Western belts winning seven of the nine constituencies namely: Kingston Eastern & Port Royal, Kingston Central, St. Andrew South Eastern, Southern, South Western, East Central and Western. The JLP retained Western Kingston and West Central St. Andrew. Of the 165,474 votes cast in the Corporate Area, the PNP polled 89,198 (53.9%) to the JLP's 74,899 (45.3%), Other parties/IND 1,377 (0.8%). So in spite of the JLP having a one-seat majority over the PNP in the municipality of Kingston and St. Andrew, the PNP got the majority popular support. These results make interesting reading as we approach another KSAC and Parish Council election anytime between now and March 2003.
In the rural parishes, the PNP won 27 seats to the JLP's 18. The PNP polled 312,565 (51.5%) votes to the JLP's 291,885 (48%) and OP/IND 2,843 (0.5%). So with an absolute majority of 17,837, the PNP under the first-past-the-post system won 60% of the 45 seats in rural Jamaica to the JLP's 40%. In what was undoubtedly a straight contest between the JLP and PNP, the PNP majority, islandwide, was 34,979 considerably reduced when compared to the 1997 132,418 majority.
The JLP on the other hand increased its 1997 support (297,387) by 69,397 (23.3%) as against a reduced support of 28,042 (6.5%) for the PNP. In what is the second closest parliamentary general election since 1962, the unanswered question will forever be: What could have been the results had the rains not intervened on October 16, 2002?
It would be remiss of me not to comment on the constituency profiles published in The Gleaner during the period March 8, 2002 to October 5, 2002. Anticipating a May 2002 general election, profiles and projections for all 60 constituencies were prepared and delivered to The Gleaner at the end of February 2002 for publication each Friday commencing March 2002. In spite of what some pollsters were saying - landslide for the JLP and then within the dying moments of the campaign September/October 2002 - landslide for the PNP, I refused to revisit the constituency profiles/projections. It is therefore a fact that no changes were made to the data compiled within the competence of a psephologist. Based on the many congratulatory calls I have received as to the accuracy of the data presented, I have decided to share the results with those readers who have not reconciled the projections with the outcome of the elections. Listed below are the projected results seat by seat:
Of the 60 constituencies, 52 were called correctly. It is interesting to note that one of the eight constituencies incorrectly projected, South West St. Elizabeth, the projection had the PNP candidate trailing by a mere 76; he won by a whisker - 117 votes. The projection for St. Ann North West had the incumbent Arnold Bertram winning by 298 he lost by a mere 99 votes - more power to the JLP newcomer Verna Parchment. Both the East Rural St. Andrew and Eastern Hanover seats were lost to the JLP by 684 and 561 votes respectively. Glory to the two JLP newcomers.
St. James North West gave Dr. Horace Chang a comfortable 3,303 majority; quite a remarkable achievement for one who has been the bridesmaid to Francis Tulloch on two previous occasions. This clearly brings out the fact that fixity of purpose can bring the justified results. Congratulations to Dr. Chang and Deputy Leader Edmund Bartlett who heads the JLP Area Council for western Jamaica.
In South West St. Catherine the PNP incumbent had a projected margin of 181; she lost by 1,097, quite a comfortable margin of victory for JLP veteran Everald Warmington. In St. Ann North East, the JLP candidate Shahine Robinson proved beyond the shadow of a doubt that she is a formidable champion of the people. This was demonstrated in no uncertain manner as she retained her seat by a comfortable 1,174 majority.
I deliberately saved the best wine for the last. A young man, not yet 39 who hails from Clarendon, North West to be exact. Oh, how he put the pundits to shame. Everyone including yours truly had the JLP retaining the North West Clarendon constituency. One Troy Caine of Observer connection had this to say in his constituency profile ( Jamaica Observer October 2002) "Stone faces lightweight PNP newcomer Richard Azan without Stern's presence in what will hardly be a stern challenge". Poor Troy, he has been badly caned by Richard "Lion Heart". Not only did young Azan wipe out the 1997 deficit of 204 votes, but against a significant swing to the JLP in the parish of Clarendon, won by a comfortable majority of 678. More power to young Richard Azan.
Special mention must be made of Central Manchester where the JLP challenger tried everything in the book to out-general the incumbent John Junor. Let this be a lesson to all politicians whose desire is to rise to the heights of their powers on the ruins of others. The electors will have none of it. Lest we forget, "who God bless no man curse", a word to the wise.
In closing, I say to those who dare travel the route of sowing discord, bitterness and hate, through envy and the desire to attain power at all costs - "Change course, for where you have envy and selfish ambition there you find disorder and every evil practice".
