John Rapley - Foreign FocusUS PRESIDENT George W. Bush's effort to build support for an invasion of Iraq has been rendered more difficult by the growing tensions in the Korean peninsula. Having named North Korea in his landmark 'axis of evil' speech a year ago something he probably now regrets doing Mr. Bush must now explain why he is itching for a fight with Saddam Hussein but calling for talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong Il.
That is because on the face of it, North Korea poses the greater danger. It has an active nuclear programme and is believed to already possess nuc-lear bombs; Iraq does not. North Korea has expelled weapons inspectors; Iraq has invited them in. North Korea is rattling its sabres, and a war on the peninsula could rain carnage down on East Asia; Iraq seems to want to avoid war, and its military capability is so eroded that it could be easily contained if it turned aggressive.
So why is the US administration playing down the Korean threat while sticking to its guns on Iraq? The fact is, Kim Jong Il has America where he wants it.
America's strategic interest in the Middle East, of course, is oil. However, some in the administration are convinced that Saddam poses a future if not present threat to US interests if he develops his country's ability to build weapons of mass destruction. So they want, in their own words, to take him out.
War in the Middle East is complex, but it would not normally devastate US interests over the long-term. The biggest challenge Mr. Bush faces in the region is winning the support of reluctant allies. Though most of the region's governments would like to see the back of Saddam, they are not sure if this is the time to eliminate him, and they are also suspicious of Mr. Bush's proposed means.
Nevertheless, should Mr. Bush build a coalition for war, it is likely that it would be a short campaign. Of course, the risks remain high. Iraq could use weapons of mass destruction, the country could draw American occupiers into a quagmire of anarchy, and the region could explode in an anti-American rage. But the American administration, aware of these dangers, is calculating that they are not likely to materialise.
In the case of North Korea, the stakes are higher, and the risks greater. Some 37,000 American troops are stationed on the Korean border. In the event of a war, the South Korean army, along with its US allies, would almost certainly occupy the north and defeat the communist regime. But not before the North Koreans devastated the south. With a large and capable army and missiles able to deliver nuclear bombs as far as Japan, North Korea could drag the south, and possibly even the region, down with it.
American lives would be lost, and East Asia would likely sink into recession, possibly dragging the global economy in its wake. America's fragile recovery would thus come to an end. It is a scenario that nobody in Washington wants to contemplate.
So, while hardliners still want to isolate North Korea, most administration officials are hoping that Kim is just bluffing his way through a poker match. By threatening to go to war, he may wreak concessions, like aid, from the Americans. Past experience suggests this is a reasonable conclusion to make of his motives.
US policy in Korea is made even more difficult by the rising tide of anti-Americanism in South Korea. Many South Koreans, who support newly-elected president Roh Moo Hyun, are calling for American troops to leave South Korea. Many Americans, tired of the Korean commitment, would like to concur. But the administration fears this would send a bad signal to the region, and possibly trigger an arms war.
Thus, it ends up talking softly and accepting the South Korean line, which is to call for diplomacy and mediation. Meanwhile, the irony of Mr. Bush's call for vigilance against Iraq is not lost on US allies. And the message that the best way to prevent a US invasion is to pose a grave danger may encourage real or potential members of the so-called axis of evil to speed up their own weapons programmes.
John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
