John Rapley - Foreign FocusTHIS WEEK, officials of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) visited Kenya to meet its new Government. Cut off from official aid for the last three years due to its high levels of corruption, Kenya is now trying to re-open itself for business under a new leadership.
Just now, the omens are good. In return for a resumption of credit, the IMF has demanded a package of anti-corruption measures, which the Government has been happy to grant. Indeed, it was a promise to tackle corruption that brought this Government to power in a landslide election victory late last month. Led by former Cabinet Minister, Mwai Kibaki, the National Alliance Rainbow Coalition (NARC) unseated the Kenya African National Union (KANU), which had governed Kenya since its independence from Britain in 1963.
In its first decade of independence, Kenya showed tremendous promise. Prosperous, stable, and with an industrial policy that encouraged the development of a local business class, Kenya was mentioned by 1960s observers in their lists of newly-industrialising countries. Indeed, in 1970, the country stood roughly level with Singapore.
Sadly, things started to go wrong soon thereafter. The country was ill-prepared for the global downturn of the 1970s, which exposed the hollowness of Kenya's industrial development programme. Built largely on the substitution of local production for imports, Kenya's firms were seldom able to compete on the world market, and so did little to augment the country's declining export revenue.
Corruption also became a serious problem, something which worsened after the death of the country's independence leader and first president, Jomo Kenyatta, in 1978. Mr. Kenyatta was succeeded by Daniel arap Moi, under whose presidency the economy virtually ground to a halt and ethnic violence broke out. To his credit, though, Mr. Moi did agree to step aside. He did not run for election, and instead arranged for Mr. Kenyatta's son, Uhuru, to run as the KANU candidate for president.
Any hopes that the Kenyatta name would catapult KANU back into power were quickly dashed. KANU benefited in the past from the deep divisions within the political opposition. However, its own ranks are hardly peaceable. By some estimates, half of Kenya's senior politicians abandoned KANU over the last decade, Mr. Kibaki being among them. Once the opposition was able to rally around Mr. Kibaki, the vote turned out.
A genuine mood of euphoria seemed to grip Kenyans, as many felt the time for a fresh start had come. No doubt, reality will sink in quickly. Kenya is today virtually bankrupt, limiting the Government's room for manoeuvre. Equally, there are bound to be difficulties holding together a coalition like NARC for long. Made up of some 15 different parties, it draws together a motley crew ranging from left-wing trade unionists to right-wing tribalists.
Ordinarily, such diverse coalitions are kept together only through patronage spoils. Yet any attempt to satisfy so many factions is bound to plunge the country back into the corruption this Government is so committed to rooting out.
Still, Kenya has several assets which may aid its recovery. First, it remains politically fairly stable. Second, it does possess a reasonably dynamic private sector which, with the right policies, may do a lot to help restart the economy. Third, the reappearance of foreign aid, which may entail some additional foreign private investment, could help to buy the Government a breathing space for what will likely be a course of austerity.
The new Government is hoping that it can root out much of the corruption by privatising state-owned firms. It is believed that these loss-making firms are actually highly profitable, but bled dry by KANU officials. If this is so, privatisation will not only reduce corruption but swell the treasury.
Equally interesting will be to see whether the new Government keeps its promise to establish a South African-style truth commission to investigate past corruption and abuses. This will be watched with particular keenness here in Jamaica, where many people still believe a similar reckoning with the past is needed before this country can tackle its own problems.
Kenya's hurdles are huge, and the post-election euphoria is likely to dissipate quickly. Yet, if things could be better, they could also be a lot worse.
John Rapley is a senior lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
