By Denise Clarke, Staff Reporter
Political analyst, Shalman Scott, sees losses for PNP. - File
WESTERN BUREAU:
THE CLOSURE of the Hampden sugar factory in Trelawny is at the top of a list of factors which could cost the ruling People's National Party (PNP) some crucial Parish Council divisions in western Jamaica, says respected political analyst, Shalman Scott.
Scott, a former Mayor of Montego Bay, is predicting that the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) could take over the Parish Councils in St. James and Trelawny in the Local Government elections expected to be called before the end of March.
"These are very broad indicators... because the personalities of the candidates weigh more heavily on the electoral outcome than in a parliamentary election," Mr. Scott noted.
He tipped the JLP to win 11 of the 17 divisions in the St. James Parish Council and seven of the nine divisions in the Trelawny. However, in the all-PNP Westmoreland Parish Council, he is predicting a straight win for the 'Comrades', with the party expected to again take home all 14 divisions.
Mr. Scott's analysis is based on the results of last October's General Election, which saw the JLP gaining significant ground in the west, particularly in St. James, where it won three of the four seats in the parish, which previously had the ruling PNP holding all four seats.
"We have had a big swing in St. James to the Labour Party. The St. James Parish Council could end up with a Labour majority and a JLP Mayor," Mr. Scott said.
The Parish Councils in Hanover and St. Elizabeth could go to either party, Mr. Scott said. However, he noted that areas in Trelawny and St. James, where a significant number of persons who lost their jobs as a result of the recent closure of the Hampden Sugar Factory, are not likely to be winners for the PNP.
"While you can't really write off a division, the closure of Hampden is going to make it difficult for the PNP to come home than if the situation were different," Mr. Scott pointed out.
The present debate over parliamentary salary increases and the salaries of other working groups, the Blythe factor, as well as the state of the economy, including the instability in the exchange rate, are also factors Mr. Scott thinks could affect the outcome of the polls.
