D.K. DuncanAN INTERESTING month begins today. One interesting observation may be that it begins with ALL FOOLS DAY. Another may be that it coincides with the beginning of the Jamaican Financial Year. No one has yet successfully established a direct relationship between the two. A third observation is that the month is devoted to the presentation, discussion and adoption of our National Budget.
ELOCUTION
The Throne Speech, written by the Government, is to be read by the Queen's Representative in the nation's Parliament on Thursday, April 3, 2003. This is usually an irrelevant exercise as far as substance is concerned. It is primarily devoted to "POMP and PRIDE". Glowing references are usually made to the attire of the female participants.
ESTIMATES
Later in the same afternoon the Finance Minister "tables" in the House a document which is indicative of how much money the Government says it will spend for the next fiscal year. The figures are not related to "All Fools' Day" although they are usually not credible.
For three days, all sixty Members of Parliament should be in the House to study this document. An exercise in futility for all concerned, it is carried out with little enthusiasm. Called the "Estimates of Expenditure" the participants rely heavily on the word "Estimate" to allow this exercise to be completed in record time.
THE PRESENTATION
One week later on April 17, the Finance Minister makes an oral presentation explaining how he plans to finance this expenditure. Interest in these annual Budget presentations have waned considerably over the last decade. Public interest seemed at its highest in the 1970s and early 1980s for various reasons. These ranged from the oratory of a Michael Manley to the "statistical exactness" of an Edward Seaga. It could be argued that these two decades represented a time when hope was high on the political agenda. It also coincided with a time when the majority of the Jamaican people participated in the electoral process.
The actual timing of the Budget presentations had become unpredictable in those earlier years ranging from April through to June. The present Finance Minister has made it a stated point of duty to return to the original timetable of presenting the budget in the first month of the Financial Year April. As a consequence of his efforts, he will close the debate on April 30. Three other presentations will precede the closing of the debate. The Opposition Spokesperson on Finance will respond on April 22nd to the Finance Minister's opening presentation. The Leaders of the two parties in Parliament will follow - the Opposition Leader on April 24 and the Prime Minister on April 29,2003.
This trend of fewer and fewer speakers in the main debate was established in the 1970s. Prime Minister Manley's presentations usually held pride of place and in the main lasted several hours. At that time, people would sit for hours at home or office watching or listening while experiencing his amazing oratorical skills.
CRUNCH TIME
This time around in 2003, there seems to be a re-awakening of interest at least in some quarters in the budget exercise. Over the last ten years, there have been voices sometimes many, sometimes few who have indicated that the Government would be unable to present a credible budget to the country. Prediction of draconian measures to be implemented have been made over these years sometimes coinciding with ALL FOOLS' DAY sometimes before.
This year is no exception. The phrase most often repeated is "CRUNCH TIME". It has become so predictable that the Jamaican Public seems to react to it as something analogous to "CRYING WOLF'. However more people are now wondering if the "chickens have come home to roost".
MAIN INTEREST
The presentations of interest will come from the same individual the Finance Minister. If his 2002 presentations are anything to go by both his opening and closing should provide significant directions for the economy and have a dramatic impact on the lives of the Jamaican people. He warned the Parliament last year of the impact that statements in the budget presentations have on overseas stakeholders. He begins his presentations this year with this admonition directed towards himself.
It will be interesting to see the extent to which the Finance Minister has lost political capital since his revelations on THE ECONOMY to Parliament in December, 2002 and to his comrades at the Constituency Conference in February, 2003.
Nevertheless, all four speakers in the April, 2003 Budget exercise will attract varying amounts of attention. If there is an alternative to the economic path being pursued which is capable of being communicated there is fertile ground for it.
In the meantime all four should know that "Tom drunk, but Tom no fool". One love, One heart.
A dental surgeon, Dr. D.K. Duncan is a former General Secretary and Minister of Government in the PNP Administration of the l970s.
