MIAMI (Reuters):
SHIFTING WIND and temperature patterns will make this year's Atlantic hurricane season busier than normal, with six to nine hurricanes, U.S. Government forecasters said yesterday.
The outlook for the season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, calls for 11 to 15 tropical storms with six to nine growing into hurricanes and two to four reaching major hurricane strength, with top winds of 111 mph (178 kph) or more.
"In layman's terms, it could be really bad," Michael Brown, the Homeland Security Department's Under Secretary for emergency preparedness, told reporters.
In an average year, there are 10 tropical storms, of which six grow to hurricane strength and two achieve major storm status, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which released yesterday's forecast.
Forecasters cited two main factors for their predictions.
El Niño, the periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific, has dissipated and its opposite, La Nina, is forming.
El Niño brings strong winds in the upper atmosphere that shear off the tops of nascent cyclones in the Atlantic, squelching development. With La Niña, those winds decrease, allowing storms to grow in frequency and ferocity.
Secondly, the region is already in a period of increased storm activity brought on by warmer-than-normal Atlantic temperatures and weakened trade winds.
"Should those two factors join forces, we may see a very active hurricane season indeed," said James Mahoney, deputy NOAA administrator.
The last eight years have been the busiest on record for the Atlantic-Caribbean-Gulf of Mexico hurricane region, Mahoney said. In the last two years alone, nine tropical storms and one hurricane hit the United States, killing 54 people and causing US$6.3 billion of economic damage.
At the same time, coastal populations have burgeoned, leaving more people potentially in harm's way. Forecasters urged coastal residents from Texas to Maine to assemble emergency provisions and learn evacuation routes now, before the season gets into high gear.
Inland residents of coastal states also should be wary because even mild hurricanes can bring torrential rains that cause flooding far inland, they said. In the last three decades, 59 per cent of U.S. hurricane deaths have been from inland flooding, compared with only 23 per cent from storm winds and ocean surge in the strike area.
