John Rapley - Foreign Focus THE RECENT wave of pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong have drawn the world's attention back to the question of East Asia's future. Home to a quarter of the planet's people, and on track to eventually become the largest pole in the global economy, East Asia is resuming its historic role as a global epicentre.
Thus, recent events are of particular concern.
The Hong Kong protesters have shown themselves to be more pragmatic than the students in Tiananmen Square were 14 years ago. They will not likely push Beijing into a crackdown. Nonetheless, rising discontent at communist rule within China's swelling business class poses a growing challenge to the Chinese authorities.
COMPLICATE RELATIONS
At the same time, they are mindful that any crackdown in Hong Kong will complicate relations with Taiwan. Beijing regards Taiwan as a renegade province. For their part, Taiwan's rulers have, since the communist revolution, regarded themselves as China's legitimate government. But in recent years, a more assertive nationalism has emerged within the island among a generation which seeks to secede from China. Relations across the Formosa Strait thus remain tense.
Not as tense as those on the North Korean border, though.
While the world's attention has been focused on the movements of United States troops in Iraq, of great significance has been a recent redeployment of the substantial American troop contingent in South Korea. The withdrawal of soldiers from the border-zone has been seen by some South Koreans as the beginning of a U.S. pull-out from their country.
Officially, the Americans remain committed to the defence of South Korea. Nevertheless, at a time when American military commitments elsewhere are multiplying, South Korea is coming to be seen in Washington as too heavy a burden. Compounding this sentiment is the fact that Korean nationalism is now turning against the American presence. Many in Washington now want the East Asians to look after their own security.
One upshot of this has been that in recent years, Japan has reopened the once-taboo topic of re-militarisation. Under the constitution the Americans imposed during their post-World War II occupation, Japan's armed forces were to be limited and devoted entirely to self-defence.
Many Japanese, fearful that militarists could ever return to power in their country, want to keep it that way. But the present prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi, is receptive to the growing nationalist tide. He is also aware that the Americans are likely to want to reduce their presence in East Asia in the years ahead. And with North Korea having demonstrated its ability to launch missiles on Japan, the need for a stronger military is plain.
A larger and more aggressive Japanese military will obviously raise hackles in Beijing, though. The communist leadership finds itself treading a fine line. On the one hand, eager as it is to reunify China and integrate the country more deeply into the global economy, it does not want to be seen as too aggressive. On the other hand, it does not want to compromise its security interests in any way: given China's suffering at Japanese hands in World War II, aggressive Japanese behaviour will certainly be met with an equivalent Chinese response. So it will go if Taiwanese nationalism or Hong Kong protests become too pronounced.
INTERESTING EXERCISE
Thus, observing East Asian diplomacy will become an interesting exercise over the coming years. In part, what is happening is an inevitable result of the waning influence of the U.S. in the region. As the cost of its war on terror rises, and as it tries to find ways to streamline its military, the U.S. is sure to reduce its presence in East Asia, even if it does not abandon the region altogether. The resultant vacuum will have to be filled by the region's key players.
Looking down the road, it seems likely that the future shape of East Asia will be determined largely within the ranks of China's ruling elite. Whatever its short-term military ambitions, Japan is a waning economic power. South Korea neither can nor wants to fill the gap. And Taiwan will almost certainly be re-integrated, somehow, to China. The big questions are whether China's ascent can be managed without conflict, and whether North Korea plays a spoiler role. It is a good time to be a student of East Asian politics... preferably, though, from a distance.
John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
