John Rapley - Foreign Focus THE BOMBING of the United Nations offices in Baghdad last week, along with an attack on a water pipeline, appeared to initiate a new phase in the war in Iraq. Until now, the guerrillas had been targeting US and British soldiers and attacking economic infrastructure in apparently isolated incidents. Now, however, there appears to be an increasing degree of co-ordination.
The UN bombing is an example of this. The tactics were reminiscent of those used by Islamic militants, but the munitions likely were procured by agents of the former regime. Co-operation by disparate groups, united by their opposition to the occupation, emerges as a distinct possibility.
If the purpose was to scare away aid organisations, the attack worked. Several agencies, including the World Bank, withdrew their offices from Baghdad. A recent attack on an oil pipeline clearly reveals a strategy of bleeding the emergent government's limited revenues, while the explosion of the water pipeline was calculated to hurt ordinary Iraqis.
Taken all together, the new strategy of the rebels appears to be to sink Iraq into anarchy and bring misery to the lives of ordinary people. It is apparently hoped that this will turn them further against the American and British presence. The ambivalent reactions of Iraqis in the streets after the UN incident anger at the rebels for targeting people who were trying to alleviate their suffering, but anger at the Americans for failing to provide adequate security suggests that the strategy may be working.
Certainly, the Americans are anxious about it. Behind the confident exterior exuded by the White House, Washington is worried about how things are going in Iraq. Many in Congress are calling for more troops to be sent there. However, given this week's updated budget estimate from the Congressional budget office, reckoning that the deficit next year will run to almost half a trillion dollars, the administration is reluctant to step up its troop commitment.
However, more security is desperately needed. If the occupation force fails to improve the situation, its position will grow precarious. Oil exports will remain woefully inadequate to the task of funding government operations, let alone re-building the country, if oil installations and pipelines remain as vulnerable as they are now. Foreign investors, wary of the dangers of doing business in Iraq, will continue to sit on the sidelines. The economy will stagnate and crime, already bad, will worsen. And the Americans and, to a lesser degree, the British, will get the blame.
However, if the Americans refuse to augment their soldiers on the ground, what options remain? The civilian administration is rushing to cobble together an Iraqi security force and calling on other countries to commit troops to the pacification of Iraq. Other countries are understandably reluctant to do so. Not only are they acutely conscious that their soldiers, too, would be targets, they are also insisting that there be a quid pro quo for their involvement. Essentially, America's allies are saying that if they are to bear part of the burdens of post-war pacification and reconstruction, they must gain more say in the administration of the country. Most are insisting that they will move in only under UN auspices.
Not surprisingly, given their current unilateralism, the Americans do not want to give up their power. But that is likely to mean that they will have to continue fighting this war substantially on their own. Sotto voce, administration officials are now saying their involvement in Iraq may drag on for years. The budgetary implications could be enormous.
But it is the political implications that may emerge first. It is a measure of how worried the administration has become that some of the President's political advisers are reportedly examining previously unthinkable scenarios for next year's presidential election. Conventional wisdom was that with the economy weak, the President could campaign on his credentials as commander-in-chief, an issue the Democratic opposition would not dare to challenge.
However, security may no longer be such a guaranteed issue for President Bush. Much could happen in the weeks ahead. Saddam could be caught, oil exports could finally pick up, the attacks may taper off as a small rebel force is gradually wiped out. But for now, the war is not going well for the Bush administration, and it knows it.
John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Dept of Government, UWI, Mona.
