Howard Hamilton - Horse Sense LAST WEEK we looked at handicapping and its importance in providing competitive racing. We explored the increase in the number of "condition" races at the expense of handicapping and lamented the fact that there were now so few handicapped races and the few were often so badly handicapped. This week, we look at some of the features of handicapping and the techniques we can use to find that all illusive winner.
The Handicapper's job is to ensure that all the horses in a race have an equal chance. His job will have been well done when all the horses finish in a line across the track.
But this is rarely so and the horse player looks for flaws in the handicap and, hopefully, some important bits of information which the handicapper has overlooked.
The cerebral stimulation of handicapping, and the ego gratification that comes from doing it well, are only part of the attraction of playing the horses.
Those attracted to the nuances of handicapping will tell you that it offers more mental challenge and stimulation than nay subject in the formal academic world. Few people ever master it. Those who are successful in every facet of their lives are often frustrated, bewildered and sometimes ruined when they try to tackle racing.
I don't think horse players will ever get over the perception of society that this activity is useless, frivolous and the time devoted to the "horses" is nothing short of being wasteful nonsense. Those on the outside will never understand the challenge, the adventure, that comes from searching for new handicapping techniques and that elusive winner.
The racing world abounds with "systems" that promise unlimited success. Many of them are based on the assumption that horse players are looking for an easy way to beat the horses and make a fortune overnight.
The successful horse player realises that there is no substitute for hard work, analysing the data in past performances, studying the trainers and how they operate, the importance of a horse's physical appearance, the accurate measurement of the times of races these are the fundamentals that have to be mastered.
PAST PERFORMANCE
The past performance data describes the way a horse has run his previous races. They indicate his position in the field and the number of lengths by which he was leading or trailing at four different stages of the race.
A horse's running line and finishing position are the critical parts of past performance. Simple adjustments which the average horse player uses will attempt to equate the performance of each horse by this rule of thumb adjustment:
1 length = 1/5 of a second.
So a horse finishing 10 lengths behind the winner who won a 6 furlong (1200m) race in 1.12 would have taken a time of 1.14 (10 x 1/5 of a second) to travel the same distance.
Similarly, another adjustment recognizes that:
1 length = 1 kilo (2.2 lbs).
and will make the adjustment to the horses that finished behind the winner.
So, a horse carrying 54 kg finishing 4 lengths behind the horse carrying 54 kg also will be adjusted (all other things being equal) 4 kg lighter than the horse who finished in front of him when next they meet.
These are simplistic interpretations of past Performance and the more refined "handicapper" will check for pace and speed of splits and try to relate these with the other horses in the race.
CLASS
Horses, like you and I, are judged by the company they keep and the handicapper must therefore assess the relative ability of the horse by observing the quality of the opponents they have faced and beaten. It is essential for the handicapper to understand the classification system being used. The difference between Maiden Races, and Maiden - Claiming Race and Maiden - Special - Weight Races. The "Condition" races now being so frequently used need to be studied - non winners of 2, Non winners of 3, and a host of other exclusions which make the job of the handicapper so much more difficult as they try to relate performance.
DISTANCE
The handicapper must always determine what in his opinion is the ideal distance for a horse.
When a horse is trying a new distance - particularly a sprinter attempting to go over a longer distance a handicapper should view him as a risky proposition and that his running style in sprints may be very deceptive.
Horses that finish powerfully in short races will often show early speed and tire at a longer distance. Yet there are some sprinters who habitually fine when going short but are better able to cope with the slower pace of a distance race and hence show the improvement required. Another useful angle is those sprinters who come from behind to win their races - they will usually run well going over a distance of ground. As a rule of thumb you can usually eliminate from sprint races those horses that traditionally run over longer distances. With all that has been said be very watchful of those trainers who enter their horse at inappropriate distances in order to prepare them for future races. These usually make good betting propositions when they are entered later in their appropriate distance.
Next week we will look more closely at time and speed ratings. We will also assess weight and the value of exercise performance.
Howard Hamilton is a former Chairman of Caymanas Track Limited and is the current President of the Thoroughbred Owners & Breeders Association of Jamaica. He may be contacted at howham@cwjamaica.com.
