John Rapley - Foreign Focus WHERE ELSE but California could a blockbuster film star known principally for cheesy lines and bombastic violence have a serious chance at winning the state's highest elected office?
Well, India, I suppose. Besides, California's B-film industry has already given the United States one president, and many of this election's candidates - among them a budding porn starlet and a washed-up comedian - seem more determined to book slots on the Jerry Springer show than to move into the governor's mansion.
It is not even sure there will be an election when Californians go to the polls next week Tuesday. The first question that they will face on the ballot is whether they want to recall their current governor, Gray Davis. In the event a majority votes yes, then the votes for the other candidates will be tabulated and a replacement selected.
Mr. Davis is a Democrat, and initially his party was unsure how to respond to the challenge. California law provides for recall votes of elected officials if enough registered voters sign a petition demanding such. This initiative was organised by state Republicans who see an opportunity to unseat a deeply unpopular governor.
Although most Democrats also dislike Gray Davis, some of them detect sinister motives in the Republican ballot-initiative. Ever on the lookout for vast right-wing conspiracies, they see a Republican pattern of trying to use backroom dealings and unelected officials to overrule the will of the electorate. First, they maintain, a Republican Congress went after President Bill Clinton (not surprisingly, Mr. Clinton has joined the campaign on behalf of Mr. Davis); then a Republican Supreme Court selected George W. Bush to be president over a rival who polled more votes; now it is the turn of Mr. Davis. One after another, it is said, a powerful minority is removing Democrats and replacing them with their people.
In this case, though, it is not clear that Republican sentiment is unanimously supportive of the recall. In particular, the White House seems rather ambivalent. On the one hand, if Mr. Davis is unseated and replaced by a Republican, it would be the first time in many years that the party won such a high-level victory in California. In theory, that would improve President George W. Bush's re-election prospects next year. The most populous state in the U.S., California is unlikely to vote Republican in 2004. But with a Republican governor campaigning for Mr. Bush, the Democrats would be forced to spend valuable time and money locking up what would otherwise be a fairly safe state.
The problem is, it is not clear how much campaigning a Republican governor would do for Mr. Bush. The most likely Republican governor would be the actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is a good deal more moderate than President Bush on many issues. White House aides reckon they would be as well-served by an unpopular Democrat in California than by a less-than-friendly Republican.
At first, Democrats decided the best way to defeat the recall initiative was to refuse to run candidates for office. That way, the many Democrats who would like to see the back of Mr. Davis would have no choice but to either vote for him, or allow the Republicans to slip in.
However, that united front soon crumbled. Lieutenant-Governor Cruz Bustamante, whose relations with Mr. Davis are said to be cool, put his name on the ballot. He has continued campaigning against the recall, but insists Democratic voters must have a choice in the event Mr. Davis in unseated. That outcome looks increasingly likely. Recent polls suggest that the recall initiative is likely to succeed, and the current momentum apparently supports that trend.
THE LIKELY SUCCESSOR
The matter then turns to who the likely successor will be. The California Republican Party was initially divided, with several candidates putting their names forward. Assuming the vote split, it was quite likely Mr. Bustamante would sprint up the middle. But in recent days, with polls revealing Mr. Schwarzenegger to be the most popular of the Republican field, the party establishment has united behind his candidacy.
Democrats have to hope they can now turn out their supporters for Mr. Bustamante. But there is a very good chance that this time next week, the Terminator will bring his show to Sacramento.
John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
