Martin Henry SO WHAT'S happening in Iraq now? There is news of almost daily attacks against the occupation forces, with the usual casualty counts. There is a sense of seething unrest and widespread hatred replacing the generally warm welcome of the United States-led invading forces. And massive street protests against the occupation are rolling through Europe and the United States, thousands of miles away, matching earlier ones against the war in Iraq.
Western media and protesters - and governments, both those for and against are speaking for the diverse Iraqi people. But what do these 26 million people of different ethnic and language groups and religious and political persuasions think about their situation? What do they want for a post-occupation Iraq?
Zogby International, a major opinion polling firm, was asked to ask them. The results of the polls are most interesting. But these results have hardly made the media, focused as the media, our main source for our picture of the world, are on the Iraqi resistance and the problems of the occupation. Zogby has earned quite an international reputation for itself as an accurate polling organisation and has been tracking public opinion since 1984 in North America, Latin America, the Middle East, Asia, and Europe. The company has worked for Microsoft, CISCO Systems, the U.S. Government, The United Nations, and a string of major media houses, among an impressive list of clients.
According to the company's web site, "Zogby International is constantly searching, testing and measuring hypotheses and principles on polling and public opinion research. Working with a panel of psychologists, sociologists, computer experts, linguists, political scientists, economists, and mathematicians, we explore every nuance in language and test new methods in public opinion research. It is this investment in time and money for research and development that makes us a leader in the public opinion field."
HIT THE FIELD IN AUGUST
Zogby hit the field in August, so the data are still pretty fresh. The survey reflects a nationally representative sample of the views of the Iraqi people captured in four quite different cities across the country: Basra in the Shi'ite south, Mosul in the far north, Kirkut in the Kurdish area, and Ramadi in the Sunni-dominated area and one of the most active areas of resistance.
To get it right, the pollsters said, "we laboured at careful translations, regional samplings and survey methods to make sure our results would accurately reflect the views of Iraq's multifarious, long-suffering people. We consulted Eastern European pollsters about the best way to elicit honest answers from those conditioned to repress their true sentiments."
And what did Zogby find which remains so seriously under-reported?
"Asked to name one country they would most like Iraq to model its new government on from five possibilities neighbouring, Baathist Syria; neighbour and Islamic monarchy Saudi Arabia; neighbour and Islamist republic Iran; Arab lodestar Egypt; or the U.S. the most popular model by far was the U.S. The U.S. was preferred as a model by 37 per cent of Iraqis selecting from those five more than Syria, Iran and Egypt put together. Saudi Arabia was in second place at 28 per cent. Younger adults are especially favourable toward the U.S., and Shi'ites are more admiring than Sunnis. Interestingly, Iraqi Shi'ites, coreligionists with Iranians, do not admire Iran's Islamist government; the U.S. is six times as popular with them as a model for governance."
What role should Islam play in a future Iraqi government? "Our interviewers inquired whether Iraq should have an Islamic government, or instead let all people practise their own religion," Zogby reports. "Only 33 per cent want an Islamic government; a solid 60 per cent say no. A vital detail: Shi'ites (whom Western reporters frequently portray as self-flagellating maniacs) are least receptive to the idea of an Islamic government, saying no by 66 per cent to 27 per cent. It is only among the minority Sunnis that there is interest in a religious state, and they are split evenly on the question."
A FAIR DEGREE OF FREEDOM
Iraq under Saddam was a secular dictatorship with a fair degree of freedom of religion unlike most of its Islamic neighbours. Zogby asked "how often our respondents had attended the Friday prayer over the previous month. Fully 43 per cent said, 'Never'."
And now the big question! "When we asked how long they would like to see American and British forces remain in their country: Six months? One year? Two years or more? Two thirds of those with an opinion urged that the coalition troops should stick around for at least another year." This is not the kind of information which the protesters want to hear.
And how do Iraqis feel about the future of their country and of their personal lives? "Seven out of 10 say they expect their country and their personal lives will be better five years from now - 32 per cent say things will become much better."
There is much more. The statistical data is posted at taemag.com. All in all, if the Zogby polls are to be trusted, and "scientific" polls are trusted except where they do not support particular interests which are impermeable to evidence, the diverse Iraqi people are not in any violent opposition to the occupation and are looking forward to a better country and a better life in a post-Saddam, post-war Iraq. One man's view, "we will not forget it was the U.S. soldiers who liberated us from Saddam." The polls are indicating, not unrepresentative.
This does not, of course, answer the question of whether the U.S.-led invasion was justified. On the same grounds of toppling repressive regimes and making people's lives better, any number of sovereign states could be invaded and occupied by a super-power with the will and the means at its disposal. And those weapons of mass destruction which provided the main reason for the invasion of Iraq are yet to be found. But at least now, for occupied Iraq, we have a pretty good view of "what real people are thinking," in the words of the Zogby slogan.
Martin Henry is a communication consultant.
